Opinion | The year that changed the world, and the one which will make it
By Tom Fowdy
A year ago this week, the Russian federation made the decision to invade Ukraine. It was a move that shocked the world. Few thought it would actually happen, this author included. Despite a massive military build up, Putin attempted to feign de-escalation before launching a pre-filmed video at 3 am declaring a "Special Military Operation". He urged the Ukrainian government to surrender, and at that point in time few deemed the country to have a chance, based on a conception of how powerful the Russian army once was historically.
Yet for those who start wars, they seldom go to plan. History is rife with all kinds of miscalculations made by leaders who in opening conflicts, gambled on a genius "master plan" that would capitulate their enemy so quickly, the consideration of a long-term and more costly conflict was never taken into consideration. Ironically so, Adolf Hitler believed he could resolutely conquer the Soviet Union in a knockout blow and seize its natural resources, while Saddam Hussein believed the revolutionary Iranian state would quickly crumble to his invading force.
We know both of these assumptions aged poorly, and it must be said as did Vladimir Putin's. The belief Ukraine would quickly collapse and usher in Russia as its master was misguided and false, resulting in Moscow initiating effectively the largest war Europe had ever seen since World War II and being ill-prepared for it. Russia quickly suffered a number of setbacks amidst the miscalculations, including failing to capture Kyiv, and then later suffering counteroffensives in Ukraine who exploited Russia's lack of troops and supply line weaknesses.
Worse still, the mistakes on behalf of the Kremlin created a "David vs. Goliath" narrative, led to the glorification of Ukraine's Zelensky across the western world, consolidated a (one-sided) belief that Ukraine was "winning" and Moscow was doomed to lose the conflict and led western leaders (in particular) the UK and US, to believe they could push for that outcome through sustained support to Ukraine and a green light for escalation. It was not until September of the year, that Putin realized his mistake and initiated a "partial mobilization". This has stemmed Ukraine's gains and created a more static conflict, but it is nowhere near ending now as it was then.
As the one-year anniversary approaches, the west has responded by doubling down on support for Kyiv, most spectacularly demonstrated by Biden's shock visit to the country yesterday. Putin today will initiate a "speech", one that is being given enormous hype across Russian media, but it remains unclear, what will he do will or announce, if anything. Yet quite clearly, based on the public messaging so far, it is obvious Russia is now committed to a broader struggle against the collective west over the fate of this country. The stakes of the conflict have been raised again and again, and amidst the zero-sum disposition of all sides, peace seems unlikely for the foreseeable future.
The war has changed the world, and not for the better. It has formalized a new epoch of great power competition, one which was already emerging through the US's competition with China. The United States has taken this new environment as an opportunity to reshape geopolitics into a new era of military and ideological struggle, reasserting influence over its allies, further pursuing strategic decoupling with Beijing, and eyeing this conflict as an opportunity to impose a crippling military and strategic defeat on Moscow. The world is arguably in a more dangerous position than it ever has been since World War II, even the heights of the Cold War itself, as the US eschews the concept of compromise in reckless pursuit of total dominance.
As such, 2022 through the lens of the Ukraine war, was a year which changed the world, and not for the better. However, likewise, 2023 will also be a year which changes the world. Based on the events so far, it is clear this year will be the defining year of the war, and the ultimate outcome will have global ramifications. If Russia is ultimately defeated by Ukraine, it will embolden the west in a similar light to what the Gulf War of 1991 did, which will immediately usher in a reassertion of unipolarity and a new era of American hegemony over Europe, boding poorly for China. But if Russia somehow comes on top, the US and especially after the Biden visit, will be left humiliated. Either way, the future is dangerous, treacherous and uncertain, and only time will tell regarding the ultimate outcome of a war whereby most people's predictions have been aptly wrong.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:
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