Opinion | 2022, a decisive year for the history books
By Tom Fowdy
The year of 2022 is now coming to an end. In line with the previous two years, it has proved to be another year of uncertainty, disruption, and turbulence amidst a constantly changing world. As the globe started to move away from the COVID-19 pandemic, the year started with a much more catastrophic and consequential event in the form of Russia's war in Ukraine, the largest conflict Europe has seen since the Second World War, and one which has unleashed seismic geopolitical consequences far beyond its own boundaries.
In many aspects, even if the war was to suddenly wind down in the opening months of 2023 (as unlikely as that seems), its implications and ripple effects will be lasting. Because of this, historians are likely to look back at 2022 as a decisive year in global political history, a year which firmly consolidated a new era of uncertainty, multipolarity and geopolitical competition between major powers, formally "shutting" the epoch which began with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
While the year of 2022 has been decisive in its impact, as is the case with history, the build up to its respective events were long in the making. Already, the geopolitical tectonics of the world were shifting as the United States realigned its foreign policy to "competition" in respect to the rise of China, a trend which begun with the Trump administration and came into clear form by 2020. This competition was embraced thoroughly by Biden in his first year in office, who made the decision to amplify these policies with the goal of forcefully reasserting American hegemony.
It was this emerging geopolitical environment, combined with Biden's preference for Atlanticism and the push to recruit allies, which set the stage of renewed confrontation with Russia following a hiatus owing to Donald Trump's tolerance of Moscow. Feeling enabled by a growing partnership with China, Vladimir Putin unsuccessfully sought to assert his position to the United States over Ukraine, and soon made the decision to invade the country in February under the auspices of the "Special Military Operation".
With hindsight, Moscow had gravely miscalculated by gambling on a swift collapse of the Ukrainian state and anticipated little resistance, resulting in a full-blown conflict by a US and NATO backed Kiev while experiencing numerous setbacks on the way. Not only were massive sanctions placed on Russia but the western media were able to glorify Ukraine's path of resistance. That war is now in its 10th month, and it remains unclear exactly how it will end given the United States sees it as an opportunity to economically and militarily cripple Moscow.
As such, the war has had the drastic consequences of forcibly changing the global geopolitical environment by rupturing international security. This in turn further escalated tensions between the US and China as it allowed Washington to a set a narrative of a global ideological struggle against authoritarianism. Not only were allies marshalled into line, but the US took the opportunity to dramatically up the stakes regarding Taiwan, which consolidated itself as the core focus of the anti-China effort this year through comparisons to Ukraine. Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island in August created a crisis in the Taiwan-Strait and new fears of war.
All of these events have now consolidated a "new great power game". In conjunction with the above, the United States has continued its race to roll back globalization and free trade, aiming to create a new series of global supply chains in key technologies centred around itself. While it has rolled out massive chip subsidies, it has also dramatically expanded its technology embargos against China. The geopoliticisation of what was an open economic system has led to a new scramble to build self-sufficiency and capabilities across the world. Security now matters more than free trade.
This in turn led to the expansion of "counter-blocs" in response to strengthening US alliances. For example, organizations such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are now expanding in size, as nations seek to reserve their own strategic autonomy amidst a hegemony hungry America eager to claw back its position at all costs. Thus, while the events of the year has complicated China's relations with the west, it has only served to strengthen its relations with other countries who seek to balance their relations and gain new opportunities, such as the states of the Arab world. Likewise, American attempts to unilaterally crush countries into disarming, such as Iran or North Korea, a hallmark of the post-cold war era, also came to an end in 2022 as the emerging multipolarity served to embolden them. Efforts to revive the JCPOA with Tehran fluttered, while the DPRK took the chance to further strengthen its nuclear capabilities.
In a nutshell: 2020 has been a world changing year, and not for the better. A new world of dangerous geopolitical power games has emerged, leading to military tensions and conflicts, new arms races and new disruptions to the global economy. 2023 of course be a kinder year for humanity, but even if things tentatively get better the fundamental theme of things is unlikely to change.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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