Opinion | No Christmas respite for Taiwan tensions
By Tom Fowdy
Just before Christmas the "National Defence Authorization Act" was passed by the Congress of the United States. The act is an annual ritual by Washington which might be described as the single largest act of military-industrial complex self-indulge by the United States. The $1 trillion-plus bill, which grows in size and scope year upon year, is never in doubt in terms of passing, but moves through congress via a tedious process of bipartisan haggling and negotiating as both sides seek to use the bumper bill to force through their respective agendas. Because of this, the NDAA is not so much a straightforward question of how much the military ought to get, but also is a matter of how many related "items" can be subsequently attached to it in the form of other or related bills.
As a result, it is no surprise that this bumper spending bill often serves as a vehicle to carry respective anti-China agendas, especially those being pushed by leading Republican Congressmen and ultra-hawks such as Marco Rubio. Thus, one item added to this year's bill was a new piece of legislation mandating increased US assistance and military cooperation with the island of Taiwan, known as the "Taiwan Enhanced Resilience Act" (TERA). The TERA bill in particular mandates an additional $10 billion in such assistance to help "modernize" the island's military, as well as requiring "a whole-of-government strategy to counter Chinese influence campaigns".
Inevitably, Beijing reacted to the passage of the bill with fury, and on Christmas day was reported as sending "71 planes and seven ships toward Taiwan in a 24-hour display of force directed at the island" which was one of the largest ever, mimicking a similar, although not as drastic approach, to Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island in August. The passage of the bill, and China's response to it, is a reminder that even if Xi Jinping can attain a superficial détente with Washington and a meeting with President Biden, tensions over Taiwan will ultimately remain a "new normal" and as such, the US congress will continue to be a driver provocateur of such irrespective of what the presidency do, without the assumption that they are being helpful in any way.
2022 will stand as a year in which global geopolitical conflict and great power competition ultimately intensified, the primary catalyst of it all being Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February. The cumulative effect of that conflict was to galvanize Washington to intensify its own pursuit of China and attempt to marshal its allies in the process. As such, it used the space of the year to drastically advance its policies to contain China, specifically through the expansion of technology-related embargos, and of course to use the symbolism and sentiment of Ukraine to advance its own agenda on Taiwan, which it sees as a critical asset to its political, military, and technological goals against the mainland.
As such, even excluding the drama of Nancy Pelosi's own visit, the US aggressively has pushed hard to place Taiwan on the agenda and then frame China's own responses as acts of aggression, all of course while continuing to pay lip service to the notion of the "One China Policy." Although towards the end of the year many US allies have opened a process of reengaging with Beijing again, in particular, Germany and Australia, amongst others, there is no reason to think that the "wedge issue" of Taiwan will go away or calm down, especially when congressional hawks have already identified it as a wedge issue which can be used to disrupt any attempt at normalizing relations between Washington or Beijing.
This means that a series of escalatory cycles and "tit for tat" provocations will continue "on and off" throughout the year to come, leading to growing military risks around the island. However, the ultimate stakes of such a conflict mean it is unlikely China will make the decision to pursue an invasion. Rather, the island will continue to become a fulcrum of military competition between the two. China will continue to maximize its potential military options and "flex its muscles" with such exercises, while Taipei will continue to receive arms and support from Washington while keep up its fanatical pursuit of lobbying for foreign attention wherever it can find it. The Taiwan pot will thus continue to boil, and short of something completely unexpected, it seems improbable cross-strait tensions will alleviate any time soon.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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