Opinion | NASA's Moon paranoia exposes the upcoming space race
By Tom Fowdy
At the end of last week NASA program coordinator Bill Nelson raised eyebrows by claiming, seemingly randomly, that China had plans to "take over the Moon". The comments were not surprisingly met with ridicule and widely seen as bizarre, and later of course condemned by China. Yet, as much as the statement is blatantly false, it nonetheless reflects a wider sentiment into what already is an emerging 21st century space race between the United States and China, and uncoincidentally regarding such comments, one of the primary spheres of interest is in fact the Moon, with a clear rivalry existing concerning NASA's Artemis program and China's Chang'e project, both of which aim to establish a physical base upon the Moon in the coming decades.
If the first space race between the United States and the Soviet Union in the 1950s and 1960s concerned a competition over the "first steps" in space exploration, the new rivalry between the United States and China comes amidst mankind's attempt to now reach even further into space and to begin to consolidate a "permanent presence" beyond satellites and orbital space stations. Naturally, establishing a presence on the Moon is the next logical peace of the puzzle, for reasons which are understood as being strategic, military, scientific and economic all in one. Both China and the United States plans share the common understanding that a "Moon base" so to speak, is a necessary step for a human mission to Mars, an unprecedented feat which both countries also plan to pull off.
As per the outer space treaty of 1969, negotiated between the United States and the Soviet Union but signed by most of the world, it is illegal for any country to claim sovereignty over "any celestial body" so to speak, including the Moon itself. However, the loophole in such a treaty is that this does not apply to "structures" which are constructed upon those bodies, by certain countries. In other words, if one country builds a base upon the Moon, it has a right to national sovereignty over it, which of course has immediate consequences if it is the only human infrastructure on the Moon. This immediately sets off the political question as to which nation will subsequently dominate the Moon and build their base first, both of which propose to create communications networks on the Lunar Body and engage in "resource extraction", something which undeniably will impact the balance of power.
China's plan, signed in conjunction with Russia (although the war in Ukraine now makes their participation somewhat doubtful) was to commence construction on this project in stages, starting from 2026 through to 2036, with the Chang'e program effectively being a series of buildups in allowing them to test the technology and gain the scientific means to do so. Chang'e-4 pulled off the unprecedented feat of making China the first nation to land on the dark side of the Moon, whilst Chang'e-5 successfully retrieved material from the Moon and brought it back to Earth. Chang'e-6 and Chang'e-7 are planned for 2024, the former is another sample return mission, the latter will then aim to land on the lunar south pole. China is then expected to facilitate their first ever crewed Moon landing after this, all in preparation of such a base.
It is no surprise on this premise that NASA is now resorting to promulgating cold war space race hysteria again. Hegemony in space is an increasingly important aspect of American hegemony as a whole, because as technology improves it gains an increasingly strategic and military dynamic. This is why Donald Trump established the "US space force" during his administration. Although the idea was largely ridiculed due to its affiliation with him, this overlooks the fact the transition towards space-based warfare is serious, and the US has never made it a secret that it considers China to be a competitor in this field. Despite having only had a space program for little more than 30 years, and despite the fact that the US has excluded Beijing from cooperating with NASA for at least a decade, China's space portfolio has advanced at an alarmingly fast rate and is quickly catching up on lost ground.
Ultimately, these comments were not a one-off bizarreness, but a sign of the times that the United States is increasingly seeing itself in another space race with China, and is locked in an emerging competition over who can strategically dominate the Moon first. Thus by ramping up fear and hysteria, NASA's director is attempting to "call to arms" support in ensuring NASA's Artemis program is taken seriously, because China's Chang'e trajectory is already powering ahead at a lightspeed pace.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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