Opinion | Is the war starting to turn against Ukraine in the East

By Tom Fowdy

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine commenced at the end of February, it has been a running theme in the western media and fields of military analysis that Moscow is "failing" or even "losing" in its objectives in seeking to subjugate its neighbor. This assumption is not completely unfounded, not least because Russia aborted their campaign to invade the north of the country by March, having faced strong resistance from Ukrainian forces. However, it is also the case that supporters of Ukraine, especially western audiences, have become increasingly out of touch with reality concerning Kyiv's performance in the war, owing to an overwhelming scale of pro-Ukraine war propaganda from the western media overemphasizing every single Russian setback, whilst pro-Russia sources have been subject to comprehensive censorship.

As a result, few have realized that by the end of May, the tide of the war is turning. After having retreated from the Kyiv region and the North, Moscow announced that it would be now focusing on the "liberation of Donbas", the contested region in the East of the country which had experienced previous conflict with pro-Russian separatists. Naturally, few western military analysts at the time believed Russia was capable of achieving this, having soaked up enormously inflated figures and propaganda of Russian losses which had been amplified by the Ukrainian side. Many even made absolutely absurd predictions. Multiple scholars even confidently wrote on Twitter that Ukraine would eventually even take back "Crimea".

Yet by the start of June these things haven't aged well. Whilst it is true that the course of war is often unpredictable, and always takes unexpected twists and turns, changing the outlook extraordinarily rapidly, at the same time there is seldom space for idealism and fantasy. After having reorganized themselves in Donbas and "shaped the battlefield" to their liking, Russia has in the past two weeks begun to make considerable gains in Donbas and has made several major breakthroughs. Initially taking the town of Popasna, Russia created an enormous strategic salient, seized most of the strategic town of Severodonetsk and is on the cusp of capturing all the remaining territory of Luhansk Oblast. A scenario few many claimed wouldn't happen.

To do so, Russia has comprehensively changed its tactics. The initial assault on Kyiv and the North failed because it was premised on a miscalculation that Ukrainian forces would crumble and Moscow could overrun the country swiftly. Besides from in the South, this didn't happen. Rather, Ukraine used their territorial advantages in order to launch stinging attacks on Russian logistics and supply routes which stifled their advance. However, this stratagem hasn't been possible in the East whereby Russia already possesses deeply consolidated supply lines and terrain to their advantage.

Instead of attempting their initial Blitzkrieg strategy of attempting to steamroll forwards, Russian forces have resorted to a strategy of overwhelming Ukrainian forces with numerically superior artillery which has made it increasingly difficult for them to hold their defensive lines. One source from the Ukrainian army had claimed Russia was launching over 200 artillery attacks on their positions a day., Whilst Ukraine has had some defensive success, for example in using the Donetsk River as a defensive barrier and attacking Russian platoon crossings, overall, the picture for them has become untenable since Russia's Popasna breakout to the Southeast, which has narrowed their remaining supply routes and is closing in on their rear. In facing this, Ukraine has shown no ability to mount the kind of counteroffensives it has done so in areas where it held geographic advantage.

In line with this change on the battlefield, the enthusiasm western politicians have vested in the war, as well as their rhetoric, has begun to dimmer. Russia's progress has coincided with a comprehensive failure of the European Union to take a decisive or unified position on oil exports to Russia, ending only in a piecemeal compromise, as well as a break in unity with some countries (such as Italy and Germany) increasingly calling for peace talks again, and a shift in focus from the United States tilting back towards China issues. As this shift occurs, the western media has begun to become more open about Ukraine's losses and difficulties, with the Washington Post last week claiming that Ukrainian soldiers in Donbas are being "outgunned" and living only on "a potato a day" suddenly the mighty and invincible Ukrainian army as bigged up by the western media, doesn't look all that capable anymore.

On this premise, it would not be surprising that if some point in the figure, the western allies decide to wash their hands of Ukraine and abandon it, as they have done in numerous other wars of a similar nature. They hoped to comprehensively defeat and stop Russia, but that seems unlikely. Despite the focus on the pain of sanctions against Moscow itself, the political reality is that surging oil and gas prices and food supply chain shortages have inflicted pain on western economies too, which is gradually sapping the political will of politicians to double down on this conflict. Of course, it is naïve to draw conclusions given so many have failed in doing so already, yet it seems very, very apparent as we enter June, that the tide of the war is starting to turn and the western chauvinism in support of Ukraine is dimmering.

The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

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