Opinion | Shanghai's light at the end of the tunnel

By Tom Fowdy

On Monday morning, China announced that 15 out of 16 districts in Shanghai had now achieved a state of "zero-COVID", or in other words, community transmission had been broken. It comes amidst a phased reopening of certain businesses commences in the city. The news is desperate relief for a population that has been shuttered by over a month of strict lockdown which brought widespread criticism from local residents and of course, from the mainstream media in the West. Now finally, there is "light at the end of the tunnel". However, there is little inclination that China's zero-COVID policy is about to change, in fact the reality appears to be quite the opposite, with Shanghai ultimately standing as a warning and benchmark for local authorities on "what not to do" when new outbreaks emerge.

The Shanghai outbreak emerged at such a scale precisely because city authorities were deemed to have taken a lax approach to fight COVID-19 and attempted to pivot away from the tough preventative measures which China has typically employed to pre-emptively snuff out outbreaks. This led to the imposition of a month-long full-scale city lockdown not only as a last resort to the situation, but also a clear affirmation of central authority and a display of power, showing that no city can offset the zero-COVID policy, even China's most critical economic and financial center of Shanghai.

The subsequent lockdown of the entire municipality has effectively ended that debate, serving as an example of what every city and province should and must be doing. The logic of it goes is that if Shanghai had acted earlier and faster, then such an extensive lockdown wouldn't have been the outcome. This has had the paradoxical consequence that China appears to be tightening its zero-COVID policy at a time whereby many countries in the world are in fact moving away from it. Over the weekend, China announced it would be ceding its rights to host the 2023 AFC Asian cup, giving up an entire sporting competition, something it normally injects significant pride in. This shows that China has no intention whatsoever of opening up or deviating from the policy in the near future.

Why so? China does not appear to feel confident that the scientific realities of the outbreak are favorable for it to change course yet. Firstly, deeming that western nations have opened up too quickly or too liberally, Beijing continues to calculate that with its own population and medical resources, a "living with COVID" strategy as employed by the west would be devastating to its own population, producing a death toll in the millions. It goes without saying that the United States is on the cusp of yet another major outbreak, with daily cases now amounting to over 100,000 again. China estimates that even with available vaccines, sufficient immunity has not yet been established to change course at this point in time. It sees the scale of deaths as seen in the west as an unacceptable political failure.

As a result, whilst Shanghai is now coming to the end of its lockdown, the political message and precedent it sets is huge. Zero-COVID will continue, and there will be no ifs and buts. The authorities of that city, and others, will be tasked with making sure that such a "worst case scenario" outcome does not happen again. That means the existing policy of isolating COVID within impacted neighborhoods and pursuing immediate all of population testing regimes ought to be done properly. For example, observe how every method is being used to control COVID within Beijing right now without having to resort to a formal lockdown. For the Shanghai leadership, this was a tough lesson, and of course an even tougher experience for its population. All effort going forwards must ultimately ensure this scenario is never allowed to repeat itself. China doesn't do complacency, but that's precisely what happened here.

The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:

Opinion | The US are moving the goalposts on Taiwan

Opinion | The West is flogging a dead horse on Hong Kong interference