Opinion | The US are moving the goalposts on Taiwan

By Tom Fowdy

In the past few days, the United States has made a very subtle change in "policy" regarding China or Taiwan region, which appears to be to negate public recognition of the "One China Principle" regarding the island. Two days ago, Twitter users spotted that on the US State Department website's page on Taiwan, references to the policy had been removed. Then, the American readout of a phone call between US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and his Chinese counterpart Wei Fenghe declined to mention it, in contrast to Beijing's.

Although the United States has not of course formally changed the policy, and still insists it adheres to the "three communiques" which built the foundation of US-China relations in the early 1970s, it is nonetheless obvious at this point Washington is gradually downplaying the policy and increasing support for the island in a process which Beijing has described as "Salami Slicing" that is a process of professing to uphold the policy, but gradually slicing away at it and "moving the goalposts" by implementing policies which seek to change the status quo. It is no surprise that upon learning of these developments, Taiwan's Joseph Wu cheered the end of the "One China Policy" on his highly inflammatory Twitter account.

Whilst this shift has been gradual throughout the Trump and Biden administrations, recent geopolitical events are effectively emboldening the United States to go further and are changing their calculations with respect to China and Taiwan region, most exclusively of course the events in Ukraine. First of all, as eluded by recent comments by CIA director Nicholas Burns, the United States believes that Russia's War in Ukraine serves as an effective deterrent to China against a potential military contingency because it puts the "consequences" on display.

These consequences consist firstly of potential doubt in winning, but also a sense of triumphalism over the west's collective response to Russia in terms of military aid and sanctions. Whilst there is an obvious psychological element involved in this given China's economy has far more leverage than Russia's, the US nonetheless believes Beijing feels it has a "lot to lose" if it chose military action against Taiwan. This has emboldened the US to believe it can push further against China's red lines and further weaken its hand concerning the island, that is by increasing political support for it and arming it further.

Secondly, the United States perceives that the Ukraine crisis has given it stronger narrative control in framing geopolitics as its cliché "struggle for democracy against authoritarianism" or "good vs. evil". In such an environment, the US feels it can procure greater support from allies and force "solidarity" in ways it could do previously, which has seemingly been the case in Europe with respect to Russia. Thus, the US feels more confident that a Taiwan contingency could create a rallying of support against China and thus in favor of US strategic policy objectives. In other words, the US actually believes it has something to gain by ramping up Taiwan tensions, even if it means actually avoiding the war, but pushing Beijing on edge in a way it can foster the narrative against it.

As a result, whilst the Ukraine war is raging on for now, do not think for one moment that the US has forgotten about Taiwan. They see the course of geopolitical events as a means to push their agenda here, and are very much intent on getting China "back into the frame" regarding their foreign policy. The United States will continue to pursue a "salami slicing" policy in respect to its commitment to the One-China Principle, and just like it was in respect to Ukraine and NATO membership, the US will aim to move the goalposts whilst simultaneously holding its position and refusing to compromise with China, aiming to place them into a strategic trap, something of which the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will also become emboldened by and play to.

The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

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