Opinion | One week of escalation, a growing proxy war and a grimmer outcome

By Tom Fowdy

Last week heralded a major turning point in the Russo-Ukrainian war. The Russian Black Sea flagship Moskva was sunk by what was claimed to be a Neptune Anti-Ship missile by Ukraine. The circumstances in which it happened were unclear, but with hindsight the evidence is hard to deny. It represents probably the biggest scalp from Ukraine so far, and whilst not seemingly ending the Russian war effort it nonetheless rings home a message that Moscow has indeed suffered more costs which it anticipated. It may be a moral and propaganda victory for Kyiv, but its long-term implications will ultimately not work in their favor.

Since the sinking, Russia has responded by upping its bombardment of Ukrainian targets to a higher level every single night. This has included the destruction of various facilities and factories in Kyiv, Lviv and other areas. Although the various frontlines of the war have hardly changed at all in the past week or so, being largely quiet, from Izyum to Donbass, to Kherson, the strikes nonetheless represent an ominous escalation of the war which coincides with the collapse of peace talks between the two sides as Ukraine has grown in confidence. As this happens, the west has increased its military aid to Kyiv on a larger scale, with European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrel famously vowing a "military solution" to the conflict.

All of this is pushing the war to the point of no return, there will be no quick resolutions and no compromise settlement. If Russia planned for a quick "Special Military Operation" to force Kyiv to capitulate, hope of that is now history. Rumors were reported that Putin may even go for a formal declaration of war to pursue national mobilization and call upon his formal allies for help. As the critical battle for Donbass looms, the west ultimately eyes an opportunity in attempting to prevent Moscow from achieving its goals and impose humiliation on Vladimir Putin through de-facto military defeat. This has left Moscow to respond, as the above developments note, with only one hope of triumph: That is to prepare for a long war by escalating the scale of destruction throughout Ukraine and lock it into a war of attrition which, being drip-fed on western military aid, Kyiv is ill-suited to fight.

This development escalates the conflict into a much more explicit proxy war between Russia and the west, raising the stakes of geopolitical gain for whoever comes on top. Whilst the west has imposed tough sanctions on Moscow in the hope to damage their war effort, at the same time they are suffering from higher energy prices, burgeoning inflation and of course their weapons supplies are pouring into Ukraine like a black hole vacuum. A recent report from Bloomberg stated the US has already given Kyiv one third of its entire Javelin anti-tank missile stockpile. Russia's own decimation of Ukraine's military production infrastructure means its dependency on aid is only going to increase as time goes by. Whilst there are repeated questions asked about the sustainability of Moscow's war effort, arguably Kyiv's is in a much more dire situation.

The consequences of this scenario are that Ukraine will ultimately suffer under the misleading pretence it can push Moscow all the way to defeat. It signifies a sentiment, as of course with the decision to invade itself, that Russia no longer feels it can revive its relationship with Kyiv and therefore the only answer is to lay waste to the country, of course is what "demilitarization" really means, rendering it strategically useless and a liability to the west. In conjunction with this it should be fairly obvious at this point that Moscow has no intention of giving back the territories it has occupied in the South and East of the country. The new "Black Sea corridor" between Donbass and Crimea will be permanent, whilst rumors continue to abound of a future "Kherson People's Republic" breakaway state to be created in the Oblast and city of the same name.

Ukraine of course claims it is not willing to concede territory, but what it formally recognizes and what it de-facto loses are of course two different things. Zelensky's whole war strategy has been to pull in as much support from the west as possible in the view of escalating towards a total defeat of Russia and forcing them to accept the status quo. This may have paid off in forcing Russia to abandon their Northern offensive initially. However, the NATO-Russia conflict which he may have hoped for in the long term is still unlikely, and the result is the grim reality that Ukraine will pay a terrible price as things linger on. The war has entered a new and more dangerous face. It conquers all out or busts for Putin.

The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

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