Opinion | EU countries may face a reckoning in the form of right-wing populism
By Tom Fowdy
There are few other events throughout history which bring about as dramatic or severe political upheavals as wars, and not just on the battlefield itself. Wars unleash shockwaves in the form of political and economic devastation, which not only has a radicalizing event on those associated with it, rewriting political identities and mobilizing people, but also inevitably creates new forms of discontent amongst those who suffer the consequences.
The impact of World War I for example, irreversibly rewrote European politics and accumulated in a tidal wave of revolutions. The Russian Empire fell to the Bolsheviks, the German Empire collapsed and became an unstable Republic of which the Treaty of Versailles ushered in the rise of Nazism, whilst the people of Ireland initiated a revolutionary uprising which won their independence from Britain. The point is clear, wars initiate enormous domino and ripple effects and whilst it is still early days, it would be naïve to assume that the current war in Ukraine, the largest conflict Europe has experienced since World War II, will have no such consequences on European domestic politics.
Of course, we aren't talking about violent revolutions or upheavals, but early evidence suggests that the sparring economic impact of the conflict in Europe itself, combined with the political shockwaves it is unleashing, are starting to initiate paradigm shifts in the domestic politics of some European countries, particularly towards the line of right-wing populism. First of all, at the beginning of the week, Victor Orban returned to power in Hungary with a crushing victory, something which has been attributed to his support for Russia. Orban is a right-wing populist, widely seen as the most authoritarian leader in the EU and something which has put him at odds with other member states. Despite also being a member of NATO, he espouses a pro-China and pro-Moscow foreign policy.
Although Orban has been around a while, the tide was in fact turning against him before the war. The opposition parties had unified under a single banner to try and beat him, and last year polls were neck and neck with him slightly trailing. The war in Ukraine proved itself to be a gamechanger which allowed him to win resoundingly, prompting the EU to begin "disciplinary action" against Hungary as a response, a far cry from the claim the union was "more united than ever" in response to Russia. Similarly, outside of the EU itself, the Serbian election which was held on the same day also saw the pro-Russian leader, Aleksandar Vučić, returned to power with nearly 60% of the vote. Serbia's own opposition to NATO, given its carpet bombing of the country in 1999, was obviously a key factor.
But these results are not outliners on the periphery of Europe. In France, the Presidential election is looming, and a shock poll for the second round found that the Front National's Marine Le Pen was neck and neck in the margin of error against incumbent Emmanuel Macron. Whilst Le Pen has since the first "nationalist wave" of European politics already had significant support, having lost the run-off vote to Macron in the previous election, commentators observed her polling had reached a new all-time high. There are multiple reasons for this. First of all, Macron's neoliberal-focused economic policy has provoked resentment amongst French workers, as embodied by the "Yellow Vest" protests in 2019. Secondly, racial tensions in the country are high and especially towards Muslims, a key instigator in the rise of nationalism.
However, thirdly, the war in Ukraine touches upon the underlying "Pro-Russia sentiment" beneath the surface in France, noticeably more so than other European states, and this manifests itself in the form of the Anti-EU, Anti-globalization politics of Le Pen and the Front National. When one views in this in the context of the growing economic difficulties posed by surging inflation and energy prices, direct by-products of the war, it is an obvious sign that its events pose to risks to the stability of European politics as a whole, an ironic outcome given much has been said about sanctions making "Putin fail", which is now the government line in Britain.
Ultimately, an event as big as the war in Ukraine ultimately unleashes shockwaves which rewrite the paradigm and order of politics, literally described as a "gamechanger" which means the previous conventions, issues and rules of engagement don't apply anymore. Political divisions and perspectives in society subsequently re-order themselves and the "political center ground" subsequently collapses. Evidence is now starting to show this happening in Europe. As said above, this is early days and it remains to be seen precisely "what form" it will take, but its impact on the rise of right-wing populist causes is notable, and given some pro-Russia groups and individuals are the benefactors of it, it might be premature to write Putin's hopes off in the short term as being isolated and defeated. This is a "brave new world" and we don't fully know yet what it will bring.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:
Opinion | The allegations at Buncha and western foreign policy
Comment