Opinion | The New Middle East

By Tom Fowdy

On Tuesday, it was reported in the international media that the King of Saudi Arabia had invited Chinese leader Xi Jinping to visit the country. It comes amidst Saudi ARAMCO having also announced an investment of $10 billion in a new processing plant in China itself. The Wall Street Journal also reported on that day that there are discussions on conducting trade in oil between the two countries in Renminbi, as opposed to the traditional medium of the US Dollar.

The news comes amidst an already growing relationship between Beijing and the "Gulf States"- defined as the energy exporting monarchies of the Arabian Peninsula situated on the Persian Gulf, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. The latter three leaders attended the Beijing Winter Olympics Opening Ceremony and met with Xi, having also pledged to pursue negotiations on a free trade agreement with their grouping, known as the "Gulf Cooperation Council" (GCC). When the US attempted to leverage the sale of F-35s against the UAE in an attempt to make them dump Huawei from their 5G networks, Washington was sternly rebuffed.

How is that China can consolidate ties with these countries so quickly, which are not only vastly ideologically different from Beijing, but also traditionally strategic partners of the West? In order to understand the answer, one must decipher the political priorities of these countries. First of all, the Gulf States are wealthy monarchies which came into being throughout the 20th century in line with a western led order in the Middle East, shaped by Britain and France. These states would exert political monopolies over their natural resources (namely oil and natural gas) and then grant western powers access to them through creating mutually beneficial "patron-client" relationships, offering oil in exchange for regime security and arms.

These patron-client relationships, later facilitated by the United States, allowed the Gulf States to attain immense prosperity and shape their own political order in the Middle East by guaranteeing American preferences. This has included containing regimes opposed to the US, including Iran, Syria and formerly Saddam Hussein's Iraq, whilst also attaining western support for their own proxy conflicts against these countries. Such as in Yemen. The immense strategic importance of the region has subsequently allowed these states to attain a large hand and force the West to respect their internal affairs, despite their highly conservative Islamic ideology, known as Wahabism, which deeply conflicts with western values.

However, the world is changing. First of all, the United States alone is no longer the world's single largest consumer of oil: China is, and in turn has not reached its peak in the growth of energy demand. Beijing wants to buy more oil from these states, and seeks to build up in turn the nearby China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to facilitate its passage up through Xinjiang, as opposed to the treacherous long-time maritime passage of contested waters in the South China Sea.

Secondly, the move to try and diversify away from fossil fuels in consideration of climate change has led these countries to have to reorient their long-term economic strategies, meaning larger markets such as China are gaining in long-term importance. The Saudi state for one, has been seeking a wide number of investments in branching out its own "sovereign wealth" fund. Thirdly, as a guarantor of non-interference, China's ideology may be different from that of the gulf states, but nonetheless provides a strategic hedge to prevent the West exerting greater leverage over them. These states have ultimately no allies, but only interests in the view to sustaining their own political independence and economic privileges.

The conflict in Ukraine has added yet another layer to this geopolitical shift, as it has ushered in an unprecedented rise in oil prices and left western countries scrambling for alternative sources to diversify away from Russia. This has strengthened the hand of the Gulf further. Last week US President Joe Biden attempted to call King Salman of Saudi Arabia, as well as the Emir of the United Arab Emirates, but both refused to take his calls. Similarly, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has announced he will visit the Kingdom, again calling for diversification from Moscow.

These developments show the West which is losing its political clout in the region, as China's grows in tandem. It comes in conjunction with the expected finalization of a new Iran deal, which will lift sanctions on Tehran and also further shift the geopolitical layout of the region, perhaps forcing the Gulf States to seek peace with their long-term rival, who will also become a wealthy oil exporter yet again.

All of this raises questions and uncertainties concerning America's long-held dominance, and likewise how China will exert influence in its existing policy of maintaining strong ties with "all players" whereby it maintains neutrality on regional conflicts. Could the US moment in this region, of which it has fought decades and decades worth of wars in order to remain its strategic clout and supremacy over, be finally coming to an end?

The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

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