Opinion | How the Ukraine war is rewriting geopolitical landscape?

By Tom Fowdy

Russia's war in Ukraine is a world-changing event. To put it lightly. Such may be difficult to digest in the scope of just under two weeks, yet it is nonetheless an occurrence of the scale which forcefully changes the course of history. The situation is not only the largest single conflict in Europe since World War II, but is systematically rewriting the geopolitical landscape as we know it. Already, a new divide has been consolidated between Moscow and the West as the US and its allies impose tough sanctions on it with many having flipped into a "de-facto state of war" against the country aiming to defeat it by proxy in Ukraine.

Yet this is only a tiny amount of the long-term and dramatic consequences which we will see. Yet beyond the dynamic of Russia itself, evidence is starting to emerge that the conflict is beginning to rewrite American foreign policy, in a similar dramatic fashion as to what occurred following the 9/11 attacks in 2001 as older priorities no longer matter or are thrown out of the window. This could be for better, or for worse, and in turn China has to prepare itself for this new and uncertain environment which may take pressure off it in the short term, may construe new long-term challenges.

In 2018, the Donald Trump administration made the decision to end America's nearly two-decade-long "war on terror" paradigm of foreign policy focused on the Middle East, and reframed US strategy in light of "great power competition"- most squarely aimed at China. This strategy would be underpinned by the bedrock of focus on what US foreign policymakers enjoy to refer as "The Indo-Pacific" region. On a number of fronts, America had positioned itself to try and contain China specifically in the theatres of trade, technology and military, whilst weaponizing issues such as Xinjiang in order to turn public opinion in the West against it through the process of manufacturing consent.

The COVID-19 pandemic provided an opportunistic window for hawkish members of the administration to force through these goals under the guise of scapegoating China for the virus, and allowed it to subsequently bring its allies in greater line. The Biden administration subsequently adopted Trump's policy preferences uncritically, jettisoning hopes that relations between the two powers could improve from the doctrine of his predecessors. This did not happen, and after a brief hiatus the administration began ramping up tensions yet again at the end of 2021 to force through a coordinated diplomatic boycott of the Winter Olympics.

But then the world changed. In the short term, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has derailed the anti-China agenda comprehensively and forced an urgent focus on the Euro-Atlantic region and a necessity to confront Russia. The re-emergence of Russia as an adversary to the US had been a strategic blindspot which both Trump and Biden had tried to shelve in fortifying focus on Beijing. Whilst Trump was more than willing to compromise on Ukraine in respect to Russia's demands, Biden was not, setting the stage for the current conflict which nonetheless taken the world by surprise.

Now the US and their allies face some stark choices. First of all, it has exposed the gulf in values between the West and India, a country who was identified as the keystone of the effort to contain China. New Delhi's insistence on not following the West's position on Moscow, its longstanding maintenance of Russia as a partner and its vow to trade in alternative currencies to skirt sanctions have all become points of friction with commentators realizing India does not support the same outlook as their own in global affairs, with Indian nationalists having made "#IstandwithPutin" trend last week. This may also create a space for India and China to engage again.

Secondly, the war has immediately ended America's efforts to contain or crush some of its smaller adversaries. The surging cost of oil owing to Russia's large role in global exports has forced the US to U-turn on its regime change effort in Venezuela, having approached the government of Nicholas Maduro over the weekend, whilst also giving leverage for Iran to get sanctions lifted on its own terms. In addition, North Korea has continued a spree of missile tests and eyes an opportunity to advance its nuclear capabilities whilst escaping punishment due to the geopolitical gridlock. These shifts represent an effective failure of US foreign policy objectives on multiple fronts which the Ukraine crisis is forcing them to retreat from, which in real terms constitutes a short-term retraction of American power.

As this happens, the US and its allies have gone from demonizing China, to demanding that it be a peacemaker in stopping Putin. Factually speaking, Beijing has at no point officially supported the war and has relentlessly promoted dialogue through its official media, but as noted prior to the Olympics, Russia has established itself as an important strategic partner. This begs the question, why should China bail out these countries only for them to revert to the prior policy of the bid to contain China through "Indo-Pacific" strategies? Why does China owe sympathy to countries who had demonized it by weaponizing allegations of genocide?

Hence Beijing does not support the war or the grave instability and uncertainty which is stemming from it, nor does it owe the West a favor. For the time being, US foreign policy is distracted with an event of scale which will significantly sap its resources, focus and strategic precision. Time will only tell however, how the geopolitical landscape will yet be rewritten, will America and its allies emerge from this conflict weakened? Or more hostile and more intent to cement their hegemony over the rest of the world? We'll only know when it happens.

The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

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