Opinion | What Russian airspace closures mean for Chinese airlines
By Tom Fowdy
As the war in Ukraine broke out, western countries responded by imposing sanctions on Russia's aviation sector, closing their airspaces to Russian airlines and origin aircraft. Moscow responded by reciprocating the move, closing down the world's largest country spanning the Eurasian continent to airlines from Europe, the United States and Canada. Japan soon followed due to safety issues. The closure represents an enormous upheaval for global flight markets, already troubled due to the impact of covid, and one which will have implications for China once its flights return to normal post pandemic.
The loss of Russian airspace is huge. Its sheer size and geographic scope make it unavoidable for east-bound flights from Europe to destinations in Asia due to the need to pass through it for optimum and economic flight times. Almost immediately after the news, scores of flights were canceled from airlines such as the KLM, British Airways and Finn Air. On the other side of the world, the United States is not cut off from reaching Asian destinations but flight times will likewise be significantly increased in duration and may have to engage in stopovers in locations such as Hawaii. Direct routes into cities such as Beijing will no longer be tenable.
As a result of this new environment, a number of airlines are set to gain from the narrowing of the Asian transit market. These will naturally involve those of countries not hostile to Russia or out of the way geographically, including: Emirates, Qatar and Turkish. However, China, who is perfectly positioned to cross over Russian Airspace into Europe without disruption, will also stand to gain enormously. Although as of present flights in and out of China are severely limited owing to the pandemic, afterwards the country has the potential now to transform itself into a cross-continental flight hub.
China has three main state-owned flag carrier airlines. Air China, based in Beijing, China Eastern, based in Shanghai and China Southern, based in Guangzhou. Prior to the pandemic, the subsidizing of these airlines combined with their enormous passenger haul through China's population meant they were already far more cost-competitive than any European airline. The effectiveness of Chinese airlines has often provoked hostility from the United States, who demand a bigger slice of the pie for their own privately owned carriers. However, the Russian situation now significantly weakens America's hand and Chinese airlines will be default monopolize the most economical routes into the United States which involves curving up through Russian territory and then down through Alaska and Canada.
Beijing is especially suited for this new task. In September 2019, the city's new Daxing airport opened which constitutes the single largest airport terminal on Earth, and therefore is capable of coping with the capacity that will result from these circumstances. This will allow China to quickly position itself as a medium for flights between Europe, Korea, Japan, Southeast Asia, and the Americas. The Chengdu Tianfu International Airport, opened in June 2021, will also serve a similar function and in wake of the difficulties Russian airlines now face from being cut off from global aviation parts and services, will provide an important route into Russia itself.
In making these hubs, Chinese airlines should also expand their "codesharing agreements" with their impacted counterparts in order to help them navigate the airspace closure, making it a win-win initiative. For example, because Tokyo-London directly is no longer a functional route, Beijing Daxing should position itself as a hub in partnership with Japan Airlines and create Tokyo-Beijing-London with a codesharing mechanism.
The next implication of this new environment is also aviation-based cargo. The inability of European cargo flights to come to Asia directly means that China will become more critically and logistically important. China's leaders should seek to set up a series of "aerial silk roads" to help improve supply chains and the flow of demand to Europe, increasing the number of cargo flights and routes. In this case, whilst China's opening up from covid and its return to normal flight markets is not yet on the horizon, the enormous shift in the global aviation market to Cold-War-like circumstances will significantly increase the role it has to play in a number of areas. China should continue to invest in new airport infrastructure, and airlines should prepare for expanding their capacity in turn.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:
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