By Augustus K. Yeung
Introduction
Amid talks of US military training the Taiwan forces, the US intelligence warned that satellite images have revealed that China is upgrading and reinforcing airbases along its southeast coast close to Taiwan, indicating Beijing may be stepping up its plans to take the island by force.
Adding to these tensions, the US has approved several deals to sell arms to the Taipei government, angering Beijing, which launched protest and issued warnings, pointing out that these are acts that encourage the separatists to be more assertive, a move that would aggravate the Taiwan Strait situation.
Australian Minister of Defence Mr. Dutton was quoted yesterday, saying that in the event of an attack by the PLA, the country's armed forces would come to Taiwan's rescue together with the US Army.
Given all these one-sided inflammatory talks of war and Beijing's warnings, are the islanders worried that Beijing would attack?
What did the public opinion poll say?
Polling in September suggested that a majority of the public in Taiwan were not concerned about the possibility. In a survey by think tank Intelligentsia Taipei, 50.2 per cent of respondents in Taipei said they did not think that war was likely.
Sixty per cent said they did not think there would be a war within 10 years, against 18 per cent who said there would.
In another opinion poll in March, by the Taiwan International Strategic Study Society, 63 per cent of respondents did not think Beijing would attack Taiwan within six years, as opposed to 29 per cent who thought it would.
Should there be a war, what would be Taiwan's outcome?
A 38-year-old Taipei dentist who gave his name as Josh said Beijing had good reasons not to attack the island, at least in the near future.
"China has tried hard to sell the idea of a peaceful unification with Taiwan, and [it] is unlikely to suddenly send forces to attack us--if we do not declare formal independence," Josh said.
What do the young people think?
Lai Kuo-yang, a 20-year-old university student, said he was not worried when asked whether the recent spike in sorties by the PLA warplanes in Taiwan's ADZ was a sign of a potential conflict.
"No, I am not worried about that," Lai said. "If they really wanted to attack Taiwan, they would have done so already."
Should there be a war, who wins, Beijing or Taiwan?
If there were to be a war, 48 per cent of the respondents said Beijing would win it, against just 13 per cent who thought Taiwan would win, with 8 per cent saying there would be no winners.
And how about the US, would it send forces to help Taiwan? Public opinion on whether the US would send forces to help Taiwan was divided, with 46 per cent saying it would and 34 per cent giving the opposite view in the Intelligentsia Taipei poll in September.
What does expert who knows the situation say?
J. Michael Cole, a Taipei-based senior fellow with the Global Taiwan Institute in Washington, said that most people in Taiwan continued to believe the escalation and rhetoric from Beijing were mere bluster. They also expected decision-makers to act "rationally" and not adopt a course of action that would probably be catastrophic for everyone involved, Cole said.
As an expert, Cole said that he is not ruling out that Beijing would resort to use of force given unpredictable situations such as "motivated by survival, fear of reputational damage or other domestic factors – feeling 'compelled' to use force against Taiwan."
According to him, Beijing had threatened force before but has not fired a shot in anger since the 1995-96 Taiwan Strait crisis when it conducted missile tests in the waters surrounding Taiwan in the lead up to the island's first direct "presidential election".
"Most young people in Taiwan today were not born then," Cole said. "Collectively, war remains an abstract notion, something that is talked about, written about, but not a lived experience."
Cole said he feared that this assumption of rational decision-making could lead to complacency, and underestimation or the neglect of a variety of causes. ("Islanders not worried Beijing will attack, polls show." South China Moring Post, Saturday, October 9, 2021.)
Conclusion
The polls indicate clearly that most of our Taiwan compatriots believe that Beijing would not mount any amphibious attack on the island if separatism is not a serious source of instigation and provocation: The mature and the new generations are not living in fear of a looming war, although the expert has not ruled out the possibility of armed conflicts arising--as a result of unpredictability.
However, this factor of unpredictability is fast becoming a new norm as the Americans and their allies are playing the Taiwan card to their advantage whenever they see fit.
For better cross-strait relations, Beijing should build on the foundation that the majority of the people in Taiwan are not hostile to mainland China, which should greatly and quickly promote its economic and cultural clout, courting the islanders and singing the "High-Speed Train to Taiwan Song".
Seen this way as options and opportunities are coming the way of our Taiwan compatriots, their image of mainland China is not one who used to show anger and display arms.
By creating and conveying a sense of new era, pushing Taiwan prosperity to the highest limit of great success, creating the unmistakable public sentiment and goodwill--that the new Xi Jinping Millennium has arrived. This would be an optimal offer and overture for a peaceful national reunification that the people in Taiwan would like to embrace.
While at the same time, the few hardcore separatists should be singled out, putting the greatest pressure ever on them such as posting huge rewards or bounties for their capture for committing crimes of treason, requesting the international police to arrest them on sight once they set foot on foreign lands, and ultimately forcing them to flee the island of Taiwan, or to seek political asylum from the US or Japan.
The author is a freelance writer; formerly Adjunct Lecturer, taught MBA Philosophy of Management, and International Strategy, and online columnist of 3-D Corner (HKU SPACE), University of Hong Kong.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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