Editor's note: US President Donald Trump visited China for a state visit from May 13 to 15. This marks Trump's return to China after a nine-year gap. Members of the accompanying business delegation include senior executives from American companies such as Nvidia, Boeing, Tesla, and Goldman Sachs, spanning multiple sectors including semiconductors, finance, aviation, and new energy.
At the same time, China and the United States successfully held economic and trade consultations in South Korea last week. The prospects for China-United States economic and trade cooperation, as well as the potential follow-up impact of the meeting between the two heads of state on the market, have attracted widespread attention.
【Anchor】Welcome to DDN Business Insider. US President Donald Trump visited China for a state visit from May 13 to 15. This marks Trump's return to China after a nine-year gap. Members of the accompanying business delegation include senior executives from American companies such as Nvidia, Boeing, Tesla, and Goldman Sachs, spanning multiple sectors including semiconductors, finance, aviation, and new energy.
At the same time, China and the United States successfully held economic and trade consultations in South Korea last week. The prospects for China-United States economic and trade cooperation, as well as the potential follow-up impact of the meeting between the two heads of state on the market, have attracted widespread attention.
For analysis and commentary on these topics, we have invited Mr. Dong Shaopeng, senior researcher, Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China, and Chinese Equities Policy Specialist; Mr. Yang Delong, Chief Economist at First Seafront Fund. Welcome, everyone.
First, I would like to ask Mr. Dong a question. How do you assess the outcomes of this visit by President Trump to China? Does it align with external expectations before the trip?
【Dong】First, President Xi and President Trump jointly agreed to build a constructive and stable strategic relationship between China and the United States. This is a new positioning for the bilateral relationship, which meets the expectations of both peoples and the world that China and the United States should remain stable.
Second, after discussions and communication between both sides, China and the United States achieved overall balance and positive results in their economic and trade relations. There will still be differences in bilateral trade and different interests and demands on both sides. However, as long as both sides handle issues through equal consultations, they can resolve differences and contradictions and defuse conflicts.
In the future, due to differences in the economic structures and development stages of the two countries, there will inevitably be some conflicts in bilateral trade. But these should not affect the overall balanced pattern of bilateral trade. Any related contradictions should be addressed in a timely manner through communication.
Third, both sides exchanged views candidly on major international and regional issues, including the Middle East situation, the Ukraine crisis, and the Korean Peninsula. As both China and the United States are countries with major global influence, strengthening communication on international and regional issues can help bring more stability and certainty to the world.
Overall, the two leaders' meeting this time aligns with prior expectations.
【Anchor】Good. This is Trump's second visit to China after an interval of nine years, and it is his first visit to China since the beginning of his second term. Some people believe this was a breakthrough and a thaw in China-United States relations. Do you agree with this characterization, Mr. Dong?
【Dong】Trump returned to visit China after nine years, and it certainly has historical and symbolic significance. However, I do not agree with the term "breakthrough" or "thaw."
Trump visited China not long after taking office in his first term. At that time, his statements were very positive. But after returning to the United States, he quickly launched a trade war against China. In the end, judging from the trade war he initiated, it cannot be considered successful. In some areas, the United States actually exposed its own disadvantages. After several rounds of the trade war, China's confidence strengthened further. China's technological and economic capabilities also improved substantially.
Trump experienced a failed re-election and then returned to the White House after his third campaign. His understanding of China has deepened considerably by now. Therefore, his visit this time is, in a sense, a summary of the trade war in the past. It also reflects a review of lessons from the Biden administration period, so as to rebuild relations with China.
【Anchor】Okay, Mr. Yang. How do you view the claim that this visit to China represents a breakthrough or thaw in China-United States relations?
【Yang】It does have some basis. It is also true that China-US relations have transitioned from a period of volatility to a phase of relative stabilization. Last year, friction caused by the tariff war led to estrangement. But with this meeting between the heads of state, misunderstandings are gradually being resolved, and old grievances are being set aside. This is beneficial not only to the economies of China and the United States, but also to the global economy. For both people, it is also a good thing.
Okay. It is understood that in this meeting between the heads of state, a number of major American leaders accompanied the trip to China. The companies cover multiple fields, including technology, finance, and aviation. Mr. Dong, how do you view economic and trade cooperation between China and the United States in these areas?
Trump likes to make a big show, so he brought the top leaders of major American enterprises to visit China. The core agenda of China-US trade and financial engagement centers on these sectors, including technological competition, financial cooperation, and trade related to aviation. In agriculture, the main point is that the United States wants China to buy more of its agricultural products. In reality, the key points of cooperation and the key points of conflict in these areas have not changed very much.
So, with Trump bringing these business leaders, the main purpose is to encourage China to place more orders with the relevant companies. China, on the basis of protecting its own national interests, is willing to develop trade relations with the United States. In addition, the two sides' production capacities are complementary. China's purchases of American products and the introduction of American technology patents are carried out according to China's development timetable, following the principles of a market economy.
Therefore, the United States should negotiate on trade and cooperate with China on an equal footing. In the area of finance, both sides should also strengthen cooperation. The focus should be on payments, purchasing United States Treasury bonds, and allowing American financial institutions to participate in China's financial markets. This cooperation should be carried out on the basis of balancing the commercial interests of both sides and maintaining their respective financial security. Starting from these two perspectives, both sides can find a balance and then carry out cooperation and, where necessary, competition in finance.
【Anchor】Yes, Mr. Yang. In these areas, what is the current state of China-United States economic and trade cooperation?
【Yang】This time, 16 founders or leaders of major American enterprises participated as important members of Trump's delegation to visit China. This is also an important initiative to strengthen China-United States economic and trade cooperation. At this point, China-US economic ties have formed a close pattern of deep integration. The supply chains of industries such as Nvidia, Apple, and Tesla mainly rely on China. They depend on China's complete industrial supply chains for production and supply. From the market side, a large portion of these companies' main sales are also in China. Therefore, the previously loud talk about "decoupling" and "breaking supply chains" has essentially been completely discredited and collapsed.
【Anchor】Okay. This time, many large American enterprises are represented in the delegation accompanying Trump to China. At the same time, China and the United States also held economic and trade consultations in South Korea. Mr. Dong, what kind of expectations can there be for future cooperation between China and the United States in relevant areas? What does a deepening of this cooperation relationship mean for China?
【Dong】Before this meeting between the heads of state, the economic and trade teams from both sides held consultations in South Korea. Detailed lists have not yet been released, but two items should be clear. On one hand, the United States will open up some semiconductor products and allow Chinese companies to expand their purchases. On the other hand, China plans to increase the scale of purchases, including Boeing aircraft and American agricultural products.
Both sides should carry out economic and trade exchanges following a rhythm of mutual benefit. In the area of chips, the United States has increased restrictions, which in practice hampers the semiconductor industry's ability to expand its market. As a result, semiconductor companies in the United States are actually more anxious, because technological achievements and products ultimately need to connect with the market.
After all, the United States is a market of 330 million people, while the Chinese market is 1.4 billion people. If the United States wants to enter the Chinese market and maintain access to China's huge market, it can only cooperate with China. If the United States does not cooperate and instead tries to shift problems onto others, then as China improves its technology, including chips and advanced manufacturing chips, and as China's production capacity increases, American companies will lose future market space.
【Anchor】Okay, Mr. Yang. What do you think possible further cooperation between China and the United States may look like in relevant fields, and what significance does it have for China's development?
【Yang】China-United States trade has strong complementarity. Cooperation delivers mutual benefits, while confrontation leads to losses for both parties. After two rounds of trade wars, it has once again demonstrated that China-United States trade has a great space for development, and it is still the largest trading relationship in the world. This time, strengthening exchanges between the top business leaders of both countries and increasing mutual trust is undoubtedly beneficial for future China-United States economic development. With many business representatives accompanying Trump to China, cooperation between China and the United States in relevant areas will be further strengthened in the future. And for China, the deepening of this kind of cooperation means greater breakthroughs in high-end technology fields, especially in the semiconductor sector.
【Anchor】Okay. From a market perspective. In the short term, do you think the outcomes of the meeting will bring some relatively noticeable changes in market trend or market sentiment? Mr. Dong.
【Yang】From China's capital market, of course, we welcome more positive cooperation between China and the United States in economic and trade relations and in financial cooperation. However, objectively speaking, I do not agree that a single meeting can change the overall direction of China's stock market. This is because the trend of any country's stock market is based on the industrial structure, the rhythm of economic growth, and the latest progress in technological innovation. It also depends on the positioning, changes, and timing of international economic and trade relations.
At present, China is in a stage of expanding technology in enterprises, enhancing their technological intensity and expanding their market share. When China-United States relations ease, this is certainly a positive for the capital market. But if China's capital market is to build a competitive market system in the long run, ultimately it still needs to rely on internal governance. We need to further tap the competitive strength of listed companies, their technology content, the application of technology, and a large amount of potential.
【Anchor】Okay, Mr. Yang. In the short term, will this meeting have a significant impact on market trends and sentiment?
In the short term, it may lead to a "good news priced in" effect, it may trigger a classic 'buy the rumor, sell the news' reaction, leading to short-term downward pressure. On Friday, the market experienced a relatively large adjustment. But from a medium- to long-term perspective, based on the signals released by this meeting, in the second half of the year the market will likely continue a pattern of volatility moving upward. The overall framework of a "slow bull" or even "long bull" market will not change.
In the near term, especially after May Day, the Shanghai Composite Index once broke through the 4,200-point integer level and reached a new high in 11 years. The market's profit effect has been relatively strong, and investors' expectations for the future have become increasingly confident. I believe humanoid robots are the fourth major industry track for our country, after household appliances, mobile phones, and new energy vehicles. I think this round of the humanoid robot rally has the potential to exceed expectations. In particular, after an adjustment lasting more than four months, many companies with high-quality humanoid robot components may be in for a period of relatively strong upside opportunities. From the perspective of industrial investment, humanoid robots are an important direction that we can focus on in the future.
【Anchor】OK, thank you to all the guests. That's all for this episode. Remember to follow us on YouTube or download our APP. I'm Yunfei Zhang, thanks for watching, and see you next time.
Anchor: Laura Cheung | Edited: Kelly Yang, Laura Cheung, Rachel Liu | Translate: Kato Ip | Proofread: Chris Liu
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