With the World Cup set to kick off in June, beer—long a must-have drink for watching matches—may this year face a supply instability crisis in the UK. As tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, the UK is at risk of industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) shortages, which would directly affect beer production and could even lead to tight beer supplies during the tournament.
Industries in the UK such as beer brewing, carbonated soft drinks, food packaging, and meat processing all heavily rely on imported carbon dioxide. However, CO2 is energy-intensive to produce, and its costs are closely tied to natural gas prices. Since Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz following conflict with the US, international natural gas prices have surged sharply, severely disrupting the global CO2 supply chain.
Beyond geopolitical factors, the UK government has also noted that several major CO2 production plants across Europe have been undergoing maintenance recently, further worsening an already tight market supply.
According to a report first disclosed by The Times, the UK government has conducted an internal wargame exercise in response to this potential crisis, code-named "Exercise Turnstone." The drill involved officials from multiple government departments and simulated how much the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in June would affect domestic CO2 supplies in the UK. The results showed that the UK could not only face shortages of goods such as meat, but that brewery operations would also be seriously disrupted—raising the risk of insufficient beer supply.
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