On April 9, the Wall Street Journal reported that approximately 15 minutes before US President Donald Trump suddenly announced a suspension of strikes against Iran on March 23, over US$760 million worth of crude oil futures contracts (equivalent to approximately HK$5.952 billion) changed hands.
On March 23, Trump posted on social media that the US and Iran had held "very good and productive" talks over the previous two days, and that the US had decided to delay by five days strikes on Iranian power plants. According to data from the market data division of Dow Jones & Company, approximately 15 minutes before Trump's post, over US$760 million in crude oil futures contracts were traded in less than two minutes.
The report also revealed that this week, three accounts registered on the US prediction market website Polymarket made over US$600,000 in profits by "accurately betting" that the US and Iran would announce a ceasefire.
The report noted that these unusual trades have sparked widespread market suspicion that certain individuals may have had access to inside information regarding policy changes by the Trump administration and profited from it.
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