By Tom Fowdy
US President Donald Trump is desperate to end his botched and ill-thought-out war in Iran.
The conflict, which he believed would be over in days, is now into its second month. Tehran has not capitulated in the way he theorised it would, and now the President has been looking for a way out of the growing economic malaise that it is causing. He talks of a deal, even as Iran seemingly rebuffs the idea, perhaps due to his strategy of calming markets. Having closed the Strait of Hormuz, the White House has been left scrambling for solutions.
Now, seemingly out of options to pressure Tehran, the President is contemplating ground action. Thousands of US Marines have already been transited to the region. Of course, an all-out invasion of the country is not possible. Iran is of an enormous size, populated by 90 million people and has vast, mountainous terrain. Alexander the Great might and the Mongols have been able to conquer Persia, but the world has changed vastly since Ancient Times, thus Trump is setting his sights on a lesser military option to seize Iran's Kharg Island.
Kharg Island is a small feature inside the Persian Gulf of the coast of Iran. It is used to facilitate its oil exports. Because of that, Trump, despite carpet bombing the country, has been careful not to target the oil facilities themselves, obviously fearful of the impact on global oil supplies, and not lease because the President's overriding strategic goal, as it were with Venezuela, is to seize control of Iran's oil and place it under American dominance. This goal has been so explicitly clear that he even publicly rebuked Israel of all countries, for attacking Iranian energy facilities.
Thus, unable to force Iran into submission, Trump has decided if he seizes control of the island (should Iran not agree to what he wants initially), he can control Iran's strategic oil infrastructure and, of course, reopen the Strait of Hormuz militarily, allowing him to proclaim a win and thus disengage. We should presume that once the island is militarily taken, he will not give it back short of total capitulation by Tehran to everything he wants, in a classic Trump manner.
However, whatever short-term gains such an occupation brings will undoubtedly come with long-term costs. First of all, Iran has the option of a scorched earth policy and to destroy all infrastructure on the island the moment it becomes clear an attack is underway. Second, because this plan has been publicly announced, Tehran has the ability to prepare, as quoted by the BBC, it has already: "sent additional shoulder-fired, surface-to-air missiles to the island and has laid traps including anti-personnel and anti-armour mines in the waters surrounding it, the website reported, citing "multiple people familiar with US intelligence."
Third, even if the invasion succeeds, Iran will respond by subjecting the island to "relentless attack" having gained a US military target right on its doorstep, and will focus all its missiles and drones on it. Iran has already demonstrated the ability to destroy US military infrastructure in distant countries, blow up expensive equipment, and kill American troops. There is no invulnerability here. Iran has also threatened to use their proxies, the Houthis, to close the Red Sea and attack shipping. While doing all this, it will continue to attack oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf States.
So, is there anything good that can come of such a move? The answer is no; the idea seems tempting, but the consequences would be disastrous. What it shows is that Donald Trump does not have a serious plan for ending this war, and has locked the United States into a quagmire, which is causing global economic repercussions. His administration does not seem to understand that if you launch a war of annihilation against another regime, which then goes horribly wrong, and you become desperate to quit, why would the other side let you off the hook? Iran was supposed to fall, yet they increasingly had him on the ropes
Trump does not show strategy here, but one impulsive gamble after another. His classic playbook of "threatening the worst, claiming you're winning, and then forcing a one-sided deal" has been found out. Why? Because once he goes ahead with the worst, he does not plan for or consider the very extreme consequences he threatens, and thus quickly loses control of the situation. As such, this war is proving to be his political undoing, and he does not have any plan other than to drag the world into deeper chaos.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:
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Opinion | Trump's barely disguised market manipulation papers over the cracks
Opinion | US proposal to lift sanctions on Iranian Oil shows it has already lost
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