Editor's note: The National Two Sessions of 2026 are about to be convened, and this year marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan. Standing at a new development starting point, the development blueprint and policy directions of the Chinese economy are attracting considerable attention both domestically and internationally. Welcome to DDN Business Insider. Today, we have invited Liu Ying, researcher at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China, and Yang Delong, Chief Economist at First Seafront Fund, to discuss the hotspots of the Two Sessions and interpret development opportunities.
【Anchor】This year, we welcome the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan. Foreign media have reported that progress on multiple indicators of our 14th Five-Year Plan and the 2035 Vision Targets meets or even exceeds expectations. First, I would like to ask Ms. Liu: In this context, with the acceleration of a new round of technological revolution, how should we balance the relationship between "breaking" and "establishing" over the next five years? And on this basis, how can we formulate development plans?
The purpose of "breaking" is to clear obstacles and create space for the development of new productive forces. This is not merely a simple negation, but a means to better "establish." On one hand, we need to "break" barriers in institutional mechanisms, which requires us to critically examine ourselves and deepen a series of reforms, including in the technological system and fiscal and financial systems. In terms of the technological system, this involves developing patient capital within factor markets. Additionally, it is important to orderly resolve risks; development is premised on safety, and safety is a prerequisite for development. During the "breaking" process, we must ensure that systemic risks do not occur, whether in the real estate market or local debt. Furthermore, "establishing" reinforces "breaking," where innovation drives and shapes new advantages for development. "Establishing" is the ultimate goal of development, which solidifies the results of "breaking" by constructing new growth engines. On one hand, we need to enhance the core role of technological innovation as a driving force; for example, Beijing should transform key variables of technological innovation into the greatest variable for high-quality development. This requires us to anchor our strategic positioning and promote coordinated development. We must nurture and expand new quality, productive forces, building a paradigm driven by domestic demand. Thus, both "dismantling" and " buildling" should be pursued simultaneously, coordinating and achieving dynamic balance. "Breaking" and "establishing" are not sequential but a dialectical unity that complements each other in dynamic balance.
Local Two Sessions have always been a weathervane for the National Two Sessions. This year, the economic growth targets set by various localities are mostly lower than those for 2025, and many areas emphasize the need to "strive for better results in actual work." Ms. Liu, what significance does this change in target setting have for the National Two Sessions in formulating the new economic growth target for the year and long-term planning? What level do you anticipate the national economic growth target will be set at?
Overall, the core message conveyed by the Two Sessions is that 2026, as the starting year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, will see a shift in policy focus from prioritizing speed to quality. The emphasis will transition from prioritizing growth speed to balancing speed and quality, with increased attention paid to high-quality development and a proper equilibrium between stable growth and risk prevention.
Therefore, the National Two Sessions are also expected to set a cautious and pragmatic growth target, which I believe will be around 5%. This will center on dimensions such as technological innovation, structural optimization, and green development to outline a blueprint for higher-quality and more sustainable development.
Good. Mr. Yang, how do you view the economic targets set by various localities? Additionally, what level do you anticipate for this year's national economic growth target?
The GDP growth targets set by local Two Sessions are mostly lower than those for 2025. This aligns with current economic realities. Many traditional industries are facing operational difficulties, making it challenging to maintain relatively high GDP growth rates. Therefore, setting a slightly lower GDP growth target than that of 2025 is a pragmatic approach. However, economic transformation still requires a certain growth rate, much like riding a bicycle—it becomes difficult to turn if you lose speed. Similarly, our economy is at a critical juncture of transition, facing pressure from overlapping phases that affect growth. Thus, we need to balance the relationship between growth speed and growth quality.
I anticipate that the Two Sessions will set the GDP growth target for 2026 at around 4% to 5%. This will neither be too high nor too low, likely reflecting current economic growth conditions.
Good. The booming consumption market during the Spring Festival has revealed the immense potential of domestic demand. Mr. Yang, what new insights do you believe this change provides for boosting consumption? What are your expectations regarding the policies and measures from the National Two Sessions to promote consumption and expand domestic demand?
Following the recent New Year festivities, there has been a notable recovery in consumption and an increase in travel activity, especially in domestic tourism which has been particularly popular. The cinema industry has also seen several blockbuster films released. This change indicates that there remain significant opportunities for boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand in the coming stages. It is expected that the National Two Sessions will introduce new measures to promote consumption and stimulate domestic demand. For example, efforts may be intensified for trade-in programs, with more consumer goods being added to the catalog for replacement. There will also be attempts to raise residents' income levels and promote wealth accumulation, thereby enhancing consumer willingness and confidence.
Yes. Cultivating new quality productive forces and developing strategic emerging industries are a consensus at this year's local Two Sessions. Additionally, the appearance of humanoid robots at the Spring Festival Gala has sparked nationwide attention, and development in emerging industries is highly anticipated. I would like to ask Ms. Liu whether humanoid robots and AI are still focal points for this year's National Two Sessions, and what new changes in focus might be observed in these areas compared to last year.
Humanoid robots and AI remain key focal points of the Two Sessions, with the focus possibly shifting towards mass production and application in real-world scenarios.
Overall, humanoid robots and AI continue to be core areas of concern at the National Two Sessions in 2026. Compared to 2025, the policy focus will likely shift from technological breakthroughs and concept leadership to mass production and practical applications. Specifically, this can be reflected in policy support becoming more concentrated on the localized production of core components, the expansion of application scenarios, and industry chain collaboration, while also emphasizing the deep integration of AI with the real economy. Therefore, both humanoid robots and emerging industries like AI will not only be significant focal points at this year's National Two Sessions but may also become central themes running through the 15th Five-Year Plan.
During the Spring Festival, we saw various robot shows, which were not only technology showcases but also intuitive displays of industry maturity. Given the current situation, I believe that this year's Two Sessions will witness a profound change in focus from conceptual exploration to practical implementation, and from technological pursuit to ecological construction. For example, the first aspect focuses on the leap from laboratory prototypes to mass-market products. The second aspect is the transition from assembled whole machines to tackling the independent development of core components.
The third aspect involves moving from technological excitement to deeper considerations of social governance. As technology becomes more integrated into everyday life, the focus of the Two Sessions will also adopt a more systematic and humanistic approach.
The development momentum of emerging industries is accelerating rapidly, with humanoid robots being a particularly hot market trend. Some believe that 2026 will be a crucial year for the mass production and commercialization of humanoid robots. Mr. Yang, how do you assess the development prospects of this field this year?
Compared to last year, there have been significant technological advancements in robotics. Additionally, AI applications are gradually approaching the brink of commercialization, which will inevitably give rise to new concepts and potential opportunities in related sectors. In 2026, humanoid robots are expected to enter mass production. Currently, they are primarily used in factories, but in the future, they will gradually advance into commercial applications and eventually enter the household market. Humanoid robots are likely to become the fourth major industrial sector in our country, following home appliances, mobile phones, and new energy vehicles. The future development space is considerable. China's manufacturing industry has clear advantages, including a complete industrial chain and relatively low manufacturing costs.
Therefore, we may achieve technological breakthroughs in humanoid robots, positioning ourselves as a global leader in robotics manufacturing. However, there are observable challenges at present, such as insufficient automation levels in robots. While programmed performances are impressive, robots still lack the intelligence needed to adapt to everyday life. Addressing these challenges will require further technological advancements.
Turning our focus to international interactions, the National Two Sessions have always been an important window for the world to understand China. Reports have indicated that former U.S. President Trump plans to visit China on March 31, which has attracted significant attention. I would like to ask Ms. Liu what does this year's National Two Sessions indicate in terms of foreign cooperation and international exchanges in the broader context of Sino-foreign interactions.
Trump's eagerness to visit China comes with a complex backdrop. The U.S. Supreme Court has just ruled that his tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEPA), including the so-called reciprocal tariffs and fentanyl tariffs, are invalid and must be eliminated immediately. As a result, he reinstated a 10% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which was later rapidly increased to 15%.
This led to the collapse of his pressure tactic, while he simultaneously faces pressures from upcoming mid-term elections and economic stagflation domestically. In this context, visiting China is seen as a lifeline for alleviating domestic pressures. Therefore, the messages conveyed during the Two Sessions are expected to be more pragmatic. Overall, this year's National Two Sessions will demonstrate to the world that China has the confidence and capability to manage its own development agenda while also being willing to cooperate with countries around the world, including the U.S., based on mutual respect and equality to collectively address global challenges.
As for whether Trump will visit China as planned and whether his visit will achieve substantive results, that ultimately depends on whether or not the U.S. can demonstrate real sincerity and practical actions.
In the face of the significant opportunities presented by the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan, Hong Kong will also formulate its first five-year plan to actively align with the national 15th Five-Year Plan. Ms. Liu, what does the formulation of this plan mean for Hong Kong? What can Hong Kong do to seize these opportunities?
The establishment of Hong Kong's first Five-Year Plan signifies its proactive and comprehensive alignment with the national 15th Five-Year Plan. This represents not only a profound evolution in Hong Kong's governance thinking but also an important milestone in its development history. Furthermore, this marks a significant institutional innovation in proactively aligning the "one country, two systems" principle with the country's development strategy, indicating a transformation from annual governance to long-term coordinated planning.
To consolidate Hong Kong's traditional advantages and cultivate new, quality productive forces, the plan aims to provide a systematic framework. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, Hong Kong needs to further expand and convert national strategic opportunities into its own development momentum through core pathways such as financial empowerment, technological breakthroughs, regional collaboration, talent aggregation, and the expansion of emerging markets.
Therefore, the strategic significance of the first five-year plan includes, but is not limited to, a historic breakthrough in governance models, systematic optimization of economic structures, and deep integration of regional cooperation. The opportunities and pathways for Hong Kong during the 15th Five-Year Plan are abundant and include, but are not limited to, strengthening its role as a financial hub—whether as an offshore RMB center or in green finance and technological finance. There will also be accelerated construction of the technological innovation ecosystem and bidirectional expansion of talent and markets.
Key implementations and considerations include strategic guidance, resource coordination, and risk hedging. Important considerations involve managing global economic fluctuations, technical competitive pressures, and challenges in regional collaboration. Overall, formulating the first five-year plan is a strategic choice that aligns with the current situation and actively engages in development. It will help Hong Kong better integrate its own development into the national development blueprint within the framework of "one country, two systems."
【Anchor】This year marks the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan, and the deployment from the Two Sessions will outline a new blueprint for China's economic development. We will continue to monitor developments from the Two Sessions and provide further analysis. Thank you to all the guests. That's all for this episode. Remember to follow us on YouTube or download our APP. I'm Yunfei Zhang, thanks for watching, and see you next time.
Anchor: Laura Cheung｜Edited: Kelly Yang, Laura Cheung, Rachel Liu｜Translate: Kato Ip｜Proofread: Chris Liu
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