By Philip Yeung
Trump has unscrambled the rules of the geopolitical chess game. To reunify with Taiwan, China needs a rethink on its strategy, or risk being outplayed.
From day one, Beijing has been trapped in black-and-white thinking on the Taiwan headache. Yes, it prefers peaceful reunification. But unless drastic things happen on the ground, that's just wishful thinking. The other option is an unappetizing, full-throttle military campaign, with its horrendous scale of destruction, high collateral damage, and inevitable loss of lives plus a devastating economic fallout.
Venezuela suggests a third option, an option that has never crossed China's mind. There, regime change was accomplished without the loss of a single American life. That little derring-do reaped big dividends. A smart solution is staring at Beijing.
China is a mega-success in trade, technology and manufacturing. But it has two glaring Achilles' heels: international PR and the dark art of subterranean geopolitics, known as covert operation.
In international behavior, China has been a perfect gentleman, rule-abiding to a fault. It never dirties its hands with skullduggery, but not doing so has seriously limited its options. China must learn from America's CIA, Israel's MOSSAD or Russia's KGB. They boast deadly and clinical accuracy in neutralizing their targets, at very little cost to their operations.
Despites its well-bred behavior, China has been hounded by hostile foreign media, accusing it of posing a threat to other countries' security. To use Trump's favorite words, that is a hoax. Next to the West, China smells like a saint.
Now, I must highlight the role of covert activities in fomenting domestic unrest, in which China is again a total novice.
Consider the case of Hong Kong. Its year-long unrest torpedoed Taiwan's embrace of the one-country-two-systems solution to reunification. Foreign media calls it a spontaneous movement by the local people. Wrong! It looked like an inside job, but it was massively aided and abetted by outsiders with ill intent.
Why do you think the US consulate in Hong Kong has a swollen staff of over 1000 personnel for a medium-sized city? Don't tell me that they are all there to process visas and talk business.
American agents egged on the locals. Even 12-year-olds took to the streets, shouting slogans for one-person-one-vote in picking the local leader who, under the Basic Law, needs Beijing's blessing. That is a tiny political gain for paralyzing a city. Their fight-to-the-finish was electorally meaningless and inconsequential.
The year-long violence provided fodder for propaganda by Western media. Heroes were born. Villains were pilloried. Hong Kong's soul was destroyed, and Beijing was blamed for trampling on the rights of "freedom fighters".
CIA handlers and their local clients cleverly exploited Hong Kong's status as an open city, dragging the entire society to a standstill. As a covert operation, it was an unqualified success.
But 40 miles away, Macao tells a different story. There, "one-country-two-systems" is humming along nicely without a single incident, the city being too small for foreign agents to do their dirty deeds. Macao people pursue their way of life, with this apolitical city's GDP skyrocketing. Not a single bad word has been written on Macao in the foreign press.
There, the Macao model is perfect for Taiwan—apolitical, consumed with living and growing fat on mainland support. Peace and prosperity will prevail this side of the Pacific.
Taiwan is bristling with deadly US-supplied weapons. It will be Chinese killing Chinese as US arms dealers laugh all the way to the bank. Low-cost covert operations offer the only sensible and smart strategy.
Let Taiwan's separatist leader worry about his bedroom security. Let his cohorts look over their shoulders. Let them become worrywarts about their personal interests or family safety and they will learn to dial down their separatist rhetoric.
Any outside provocateurs, including a Chinese turncoat naturalized Japanese senator flocking to Taipei to stir things up, should be hounded out by unfriendly covert actions. Meanwhile, mainland sympathizers must be given muscle to organize themselves into a power base. Left to fend for themselves, they are often subjected to abuse by authorities. Large swaths of Taiwanese have mainland roots. Beijing needs to be at one with them.
In Taiwan's last general election, Beijing missed a golden opportunity of turfing out the separatists. Two pro-mainland candidates were stupidly pitted against each other, dividing the vote and delivering victory to the separatist Lai Ching Te on a silver platter. The two mainland-friendly candidates polled a combined seven million of the popular vote versus five million for Lai. Their dog-eat-dog, uncoordinated campaigns killed an unlosable race.
China must learn to manipulate the media the way America did in Hong Kong, using its puppet, the owner of Apple Daily to keep fanning the flames.
If what I propose here sounds morally offensive, I offer no apologies. Because the alternative is far too horrible. Why must hundreds of thousands of Chinese die for the country to be reunited, if there is a better way?
Covert operation is a legitimate tool of modern statecraft practiced by so-called democracies. Its practices may be shady, but it has noble ends that subserve larger political purposes. The costs of a full-scale war are astronomical. Wars, besides giving China a bad name, have a way of being unpredictable.
Don't forget, we are descendants of Sun Tzu, China's grand strategist. His motto is "winning without fighting". Covert operations use low bets for high stakes. Venezuela says it all. Besides, the Russians, Americans and Israelis are all addicts to the game. What is good for the goose is good for the gander.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Philip Yeung:
Opinion | Who is the paper tiger now: US or China?
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