Brazil's Supreme Federal Court will issue a ruling on Thursday (Sept. 11) regarding former President Jair Bolsonaro's alleged involvement in a coup attempt. Two of the five Supreme Court judges have already found Bolsonaro guilty.
Bolsonaro is a political ally of US President Donald Trump. On Tuesday (Sept. 9), the White House issued a strongly worded statement, hinting at the potential use of US economic and military power to "protect free speech around the world," suggesting that the US might militarily intervene in Brazil's internal affairs.
In addition to Bolsonaro, four high-ranking Brazilian military officials and the former head of Brazil's intelligence agency are also defendants in this ruling. On Tuesday, Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is under US sanctions, stated that there is substantial evidence indicating Bolsonaro attempted to retain power after losing the 2022 election to current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
De Moraes claimed that Bolsonaro and his allies systematically spread large-scale disinformation online starting from June 2021, deliberately discrediting Brazil's electronic voting system and intimidating the judiciary. Their goal was to erode right-wing supporters' trust in the electoral process and prepare for a potential illegal seizure of power. The court also obtained a letter from the presidential palace instructing special forces to secretly form assassination squads to target Lula. On January 8, 2023, a large number of Bolsonaro's right-wing supporters stormed the Congress, damaging the presidential palace, Congress building, and Supreme Court.
Facing up to 43 years in prison
Another Supreme Court justice, Dias Toffoli, announced on Tuesday evening that he supports convicting Bolsonaro and his allies, hinting at harsher penalties for Bolsonaro as the mastermind. The three remaining Supreme Court justices will issue their rulings before Thursday. If convicted of attempting a coup and violently overthrowing Brazil's democracy, Bolsonaro could face up to 43 years in prison.
The Trump administration imposed tariffs of up to 50% on Brazilian exports such as coffee and beef in July and sanctioned De Moraes. White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre stated on Tuesday that Trump is a staunch ally of Bolsonaro and warned that if Brazilian authorities convict Bolsonaro, it would be a "political persecution."
On Wednesday, Brazil's Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly condemned the US statements and potential military threats, stating that "the first step to protecting freedom of speech is to defend democracy and respect election results." The Brazilian government reaffirmed the stability of its political system and accused anti-democratic forces of attempting to manipulate foreign governments to threaten Brazil's internal affairs.
Tariffs Again?
Since last month, the US has imposed comprehensive "punitive tariffs" of up to 50% on Brazilian goods, severely impacting several key export industries. Although some products were exempted, many sectors and their supply chains remain affected. In response to the tariff impact, the Brazilian government quickly introduced a series of economic relief measures, initiated international dispute resolution mechanisms, and accelerated efforts to diversify trade to reduce dependence on the US market.
Although the US exempted 694 out of over 3,000 bilateral trade goods, 565 of these exemptions were for aerospace components and 76 for energy derivatives such as oil, coal, and natural gas. This means products closely related to daily consumption and agricultural manufacturing were largely unaffected. According to Brazil's Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services, these exempted products account for only 44.6% of Brazil's total exports to the US.
(With input from Wen Wei Po)
Journalist's View | Lula vs. Bolsonaro & Trump: Left-right divide
By Darius
Lula, who comes from a working-class background, is known for his leftist policies. His opponent in the last election was the typical right-wing politician, Bolsonaro. Thus, the election outcome directly influences policy directions and, on a macro level, international relations.
During Lula's political career, he is most praised for reducing Brazil's poverty rate. He has also participated in global climate change initiatives and focused on exploring cooperation with developing countries (Global South). After his recent election victory, his first official visit was to China, reflecting his political leanings.
Bolsonaro, on the other hand, is a typical conservative right-winger. He strongly opposes leftist policies, advocates neoliberal economics, and is pro-Western and pro-US. He has a low tolerance for minority groups and new ideologies, culturally advocating a return to tradition, making him a typical "anti-political correctness" figure.
It is worth noting that Bolsonaro and US President Donald Trump both attended military academies and are conservative right-wing political leaders in their respective countries. Trump's support for Bolsonaro, thus, is consistent with their shared ideologies. Facing a political opposite like Lula, even if Trump became senile, he would instinctively activate his "hostility mechanism."
Typically, politics moves forward by oscillating between left and right. The world needs both reform-minded leftists and cautious conservatives to avoid catastrophic missteps. However, the recent shooting incident, which resulted in the death of a Trump supporter, is disheartening. The left-right divide seems to have escalated beyond verbal sparring to lethal violence.
Given that Trump himself has faced a shooting, it is clear that global societal ideologies are increasingly fragmented amid economic challenges. This fragmentation, unfortunately, is one of the drivers of extremism. What is even more frustrating is that such attacks do not achieve their goal of curbing political polarization and opposition; as economies decline, people elect increasingly extreme politicians and abandon cooperation, which, for me, is extremely tragic.
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