By Dr. Kevin Lau
In the vast arena of global economics, where forecasts shape destinies, economists are not prophets wielding crystal balls but careful analysts grounded in evidence. They lack the gift of foresight, relying instead on data to illuminate the path ahead. By delving into data and discerning patterns, they craft predictive models for economic phenomena like inflation and GDP growth, enabling more accurate anticipation of potential shifts. This data-driven approach is the bedrock of credible economic theory, transforming abstract concepts into reliable insights.
Hong Kong's situation mirrors this principle. Subjective speculation holds no water when forecasting our economic future; the most dependable method is to let the numbers lead the narrative. In Q2 2025, Hong Kong's economy sustained a steady expansion, with real GDP growing 3.1% year-on-year, slightly surpassing the previous quarter's rate. Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter, real GDP rose 0.4%. External demand showed robust momentum, with overall merchandise exports accelerating. Benefiting from the vigorous rebound in inbound tourism, increased cross-border transportation, and the bustling financial and related business activities fueled by a thriving stock market, service outputs continued to expand significantly. Private consumption, after four consecutive quarters of decline, restored a modest growth, buoyed by a stabilizing local consumption market.
Tourism figures are equally heartening. According to the latest data from the Hong Kong Tourism Board, visitor arrivals in the first half of 2025 reached approximately 24 million, a 12% year-on-year increase. Mainland visitors numbered 17.8 million, while non-mainland arrivals surged by 17%.
Hong Kong's economic resilience is a source of pride, often confounding skeptics. Renowned economist Stephen Roach, in a February 2024 Financial Times article, erroneously declared, "Hong Kong is finished." Yet, reality has diverged sharply from his prediction. Since his piece, the Hang Seng Index has outperformed the S&P 500 by 16 percentage points in 2025, compelling Roach to retract his stance. U.S.-China economic frictions have not inflicted severe harm on Hong Kong; instead, the city has benefited amid escalating tensions.
Some harbor a peculiar mindset, eagerly anticipating Hong Kong's downturn, incessantly "talking down" the city. Yet, Hong Kong's economic trajectory hinges on empirical data. Letting the numbers "speak" is the most direct and unvarnished method—objective and reliable, free from bias or conjecture.
This steadfast reliance on data not only guides policymakers but also instills confidence in citizens and investors. As Hong Kong navigates global uncertainties, our commitment to evidence-based governance ensures a path of sustained progress, weaving a future where economic vitality and societal well-being flourish hand in hand.
The author is a specialist in radiology, Master of Public Health of the University of Hong Kong, Founding Convenor of the Hong Kong Global Youth Professional Advocacy Action, and an adviser of the Our Hong Kong Foundation.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Kevin Lau:
Opinion | Analyze issues objectively to distinguish truth from fiction
Opinion | HK's steady recovery: Advancing with institutional strengths and policy leadership
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