
Amid growing concerns over potential seismic disasters in Japan, the Hokkaido government released its first official disaster projection on June 3. The report warns that a powerful earthquake and tsunami along the Sea of Japan coastline could result in up to 7,500 deaths and the collapse of over 16,000 buildings in the Hokkaido region.
According to Kyodo News, Hokkaido authorities previously conducted a tsunami risk assessment in 2017, focusing on faults along the Sea of Japan. That study estimated that a tsunami triggered by an earthquake could reach a maximum height of 26.9 meters in Setana Town, located in southern Hokkaido.
Building on those findings, the latest disaster projections reveal that in the worst-case scenario, a disaster would impact 33 coastal areas in Hokkaido, causing up to 7,500 fatalities. Of these, approximately 4,100 deaths could result from hypothermia, with over 16,000 buildings completely destroyed.
The report outlines the direst scenario as a magnitude 7.8 earthquake occurring near southern Hokkaido during a winter midnight. Under such conditions, only 20% of residents would be able to evacuate in time to safety.
Notably, the scope of this projection does not include Japan's main island of Honshu.
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