On April 9, the U.S. imposed "reciprocal tariffs" on 86 countries, including a massive 125% tariff on Chinese goods on April 10. China also "reciprocally" increased tariffs on U.S. products from the previously announced 34% to 84%. Here are five Chinese scholars' opinions on the "tariff war".
China's immediate countermeasures against the escalating U.S. tariffs are crucial, demonstrating its determination to respond firmly and effectively. Liu Ying, researcher at Renmin University's Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, stated that while China does not desire a trade war, it must retaliate against the U.S.'s unreasonable tariffs. She pointed out that the U.S. is highly dependent on China for nearly 3,000 products, making it challenging to find short-term alternatives—even with increased tariffs, the burden will largely fall on U.S. businesses and consumers.
Liu emphasized that China's strong industrial and supply chains are its greatest asset in facing this tariff conflict. The country's extensive market, characterized by resilience and diversity, supports innovation and growth. Additionally, China has significant human resources and many renowned R&D institutions, which bolster technological advancements.
The ongoing tariff war is expected to lead to a realignment of global supply chains, presenting China with significant opportunities. Liu noted that multinational corporations tend to favor regions with low risks and costs, and as digitalization and green transformation become key trends, China must seize these opportunities to enhance its supply chain position.
To strengthen its economic framework, Liu highlighted the importance of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) as a means to deepen trade relations with neighboring countries. She stressed the need for more free trade agreements to reduce barriers and improve efficiency. Furthermore, enhancing domestic innovation and resilience in supply chains is vital for China's long-term competitiveness.
As the U.S. raises tariff barriers and moves towards isolation, Liu believes the global supply chain will inevitably shift towards a model centered on China. This transition underscores the importance of maintaining strategic resolve and confidence to enhance China's influence in the global economy.
On April 8, Professor Zhang Weiwei from Fudan University's China Institute stated that in the ongoing tariff or trade war initiated by the U.S., approximately 90% of the increased tariffs during Trump's first term were shouldered by American consumers and companies. He noted that in Trump's second term, any new "war" against China will likely yield similar results to the initial U.S.-China trade conflict. The reason is clear: the U.S. relies heavily on Chinese goods, with its economic dependence on China surpassing China's dependence on the U.S. This situation stems from the hollowing out of the U.S. economy due to neoliberalism and deindustrialization, trends also observed in Europe. As a result, the U.S. is more vulnerable in a trade war and will incur greater losses, although both sides will ultimately suffer.
Professor An Zidong from Renmin University's School of Applied Economics remarked that China's confidence in responding to U.S. tariffs arises from the stability and resilience of its domestic economy, which has been prepared for this situation for a long time. He noted that overall price levels in China are stable, inflation is low, and the costs associated with interest rate and reserve requirement cuts are manageable. Despite external pressures, China is equipped to navigate challenges and continue progressing. He emphasized the need for unity and inclusiveness, stating that China's strong defense of its development rights aligns with the global support for the multilateral trading system. As the U.S. isolates itself from the global free trade community, other nations may choose to genuinely "isolate" the U.S. in return.
Yu Nanping, a professor at East China Normal University, criticized the Trump administration's recent "reciprocal tariffs" as a unilateral move focused solely on U.S. interests. He argued that this policy undermines the consultative and mutually beneficial frameworks established during globalization. According to him, such coercive trade measures not only fail to resolve global economic imbalances but may also intensify trade tensions and further fragment global supply chains.
Regarding the strategy of some Chinese companies to shift supply chains to Southeast Asia to mitigate trade war risks, Professor Yu noted that the U.S. high tariffs on countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand render this approach ineffective. He stressed that, amid rising global trade protectionism, nations should prioritize multilateral cooperation and avoid engaging in "tit-for-tat" tariff disputes, which could deepen the global economic recession. In response to U.S. unilateral policies, he urged the international community to enhance consultation and collaboration to support the WTO-centered global trade system. He recommended that affected countries align their positions and seek more reasonable tariff arrangements to tackle the current challenges.
Wang Wen, the Dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studiesat Renmin University of China and Executive Director of China-US People-to-People Exchange Research Center, observed that coverage of U.S. tariffs in China's mainstream media is less extensive than expected. Most ordinary Chinese have become accustomed to the ongoing tariff war, which has persisted for seven years. Many believe these tariffs will not significantly affect China's economy. China's reliance on exports for economic growth has decreased to around 16%, while its dependence on U.S. exports has dropped to about 2%. The Chinese perceive Trump as unpredictable and hypocritical, feeling confident that their government is well-prepared to manage the situation.
(Source: Wen Wei Po, China Daily, Xinhua, People's Daily, and Renmin University of China)
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