By Philip Yeung
The most unlikely epic comeback in history
The world is weird. Doesn't it creep you out that a year ago, Trump was facing incarceration, not his second inauguration? Thanks to a slow-acting attorney general and a half-hearted Biden, Trump played for time and turned himself into a Houdini, escaping jail, and getting politically reborn. This is the most staggeringly epic comeback in history—from a convicted criminal to supreme commander-in-chief. Now king of all that he surveys, Trump lost no time in giving Canada and Mexico the middle finger, slapping a 25% tariff on their goods and services. In Mexico's case, he added the insult of retiring the name of the Gulf of Mexico, replacing it with the Gulf of America. Trump is back, full throttle, but thankfully, so is TikTok.
A nightmare turns into a political wet dream
No president has wielded such enormous hard power. Congress, the Senate and the Supreme Court are all living in his pocket. His executive firepower is frightening. He came back with a bang. Never shy about making a big statement, Trump has promised to be a "dictator on day one." With luck on his side, he turned an inescapable nightmare into his political wet dream. The FBI, the CIA and even the IRS are all at his beck and call. Retribution, thy name is Donald Trump. The so-called independent media are not so independent anymore, with CBS, the Washington Postand major social media tycoons falling over themselves to kiss his ring. All checks and balances to rein in his autocratic instincts have disappeared into the ether.
Deal-maker or war-monger?
And yet, an intriguing idea is lurking out there. Analysts remind us that Trump is a businessman. He likes doing deals, not getting entangled in wars. His default mode is trade wars, not armed conflicts.
Previously, Trump-speak is bluster and bravado. This time around, he wields planet-changing powers to indulge his wildest fantasies.
No China, no Nobel Peace Prize co-winner
As he surveys the world, he sees few equals. His only equal is President Xi of China. That is why he invited the Chinese leader to his inauguration. Internationally, he considers President Xi his significant other. The rest, including leaders of EU and other alliances, are not in the same league. He is unmotivated to meet them halfway or give them "face", as the Chinese would say.
Trump likes quickies
Canada is on his radar, so is Panama, Mexico and Greenland. He can cause regime change without firing a single shot, just by making threatening noises. The first victim, pre-inauguration, is Canada's Justin Trudeau. Next on the firing line is Panama. Farther afield is Greenland which he threatens either to buy or annex by force. With no appetite for messy wars, Trump likes quickies, in bed or on the battleground. His neighbors are easy targets. No need to waste time seducing them.
In his final term, Trump can govern with unfettered freedom, unconcerned about voter approval or Congressional consent or other constraints on the exercise of his presidential powers.
Vis-à-vis China, is Trump the next Richard Nixon?
Trump's opening salvos towards his neighbors underline his lust for a place in the pantheon of American history. He no longer needs to use China as a bogeyman to boost his political popularity. He can even style himself as another Richard Nixon. Nixon once possessed impeccable ideological credentials as a diehard anti-communist to de-ice relationship with China. Trump can do the same. He has ample political capital to go against the anti-China grain. Interestingly, his first overture was to make a high-profile call to the Chinese president to put bilateral relations on a friendlier footing. Next, he invited President Xi to his inauguration. Then he granted TikTok a new lease on life, a move calculated to be viewed favorably by China, even if it means defying the wishes of Congress.
Trump is no sucker for alliances. He behaves like a lonely gunslinging cowboy, leaving Europe and other traditional allies in the lurch, hell-bent on his America-first policy, playing hardball with NATO members to cough up a larger slice of its military budget. A self-styled maverick, Trump is untethered by any rules or ideological affinities with allies.
Trump is in a delicate dance with China. His invitation to President Xi to his inauguration is no doubt another olive branch. The Chinese leader wisely sent his Vice President as his personal envoy, keenly aware of the thousand-year-old Chinese wisdom that "There can be no two tigers lurking in the same mountain."
Although China has also been slapped with a 25% tariff on goods and services, that is the same treatment meted out to close-ally Canada and next-door neighbor Mexico, thereby softening the sting. Being an ally cuts no ice with Trump.
In his political calculus, he weighs the advantages of cozying up to China. The Ukraine war deadlock can only be broken with China's help. True to its belief in the territorial integrity of nations, China has not channeled any military aid to Russia. But Russia could not have survived Western sanctions without life-supporting Sino-Russian trade. The path to peace in Ukraine thus goes through the Middle Kingdom. Jealous of Obama's Nobel Peace Prize, Trump is drooling over the same prospect, unattainable without a Chinese nudge. In fact, Trump cannot be an international agent of change without active Chinese cooperation. Trump has boasted that he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. Without China, that is empty talk. With China's clout, Russia may be induced to come to the table.
In Trump's final term, electoral worries over Putin-held secrets of rumored scandals in a Moscow hotel have vanished. Trump no longer fears Putin. For the first time, he has threatened to slap sanctions on Russia. Trump is now not just bullet-proof but also Putin-proof. Trump 2.0 is only 10 days old. The next four years will be a roller-coaster, breakneck, white-knuckled ride. Buckle up, everybody.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Philip Yeung:
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