Exploring need for delayed retirement in context of China's aging society
The 11th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress held its first plenary session at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Sept. 10. The meeting reviewed a proposal from the State Council regarding the gradual delay of the statutory retirement age. What is the rationale behind this reform, and what are the socio-economic contexts surrounding its implementation?
Experts: The Reform Primarily Aims to Address Population Aging
According to the Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035, China will take small steps to raise the retirement age. It will also implement flexibility, tailor policies for different groups, consider all factors, and make overall plans.
Experts indicate this underscores the reform's primary objective of addressing China's aging population.
Guan Bo, Deputy Director of the Social Strategic Planning Research Office at the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, stated that population aging has become a fundamental national condition.
Under the backdrop of high-quality population growth, there is an urgent need to unlock the potential of labor resources in society further, thereby enhancing overall productivity. With increased life expectancy, improved health levels, and especially enhanced social productivity, integrating labor with social production has undergone significant changes over the past few decades, providing objective conditions and policy possibilities for adjusting relevant policies.
China Expected to Enter a Phase of Severe Aging by 2035
What changes have occurred in China's overall population development and aging levels?
At the founding of New China, the total population was 540 million. By 2023, this number has reached 1.41 billion. While the population has rapidly increased, it has also crossed two significant turning points.
First, from the perspective of birth rates, China experienced negative population growth starting in 2022, a trend that continued into 2023.
Second, the proportion of individuals aged 65 and older reached 14.2% of the total population in 2021.
According to international classifications, this marks China's transition to a moderately aging society after entering an aging stage with a 7% aging rate in 2000. It is predicted that by around 2035, the number of individuals aged 60 and above will exceed 400 million, accounting for over 30% of the population, thus entering a phase of severe aging. By 2050, the number and proportion of elderly individuals in China will peak.
Zhao Zhong, Dean of the School of Labor and Human Resources at Renmin University of China, noted that the statutory retirement age system has not undergone significant adjustments since its establishment in the 1950s. The policies formulated based on the demographic and economic conditions at that time are now disconnected from the current population structure and socio-economic development.
In fact, one important reason for aging is a positive change: the significant increase in life expectancy.
As of 2023, China's average life expectancy has reached 78.6 years, with healthy life expectancy—years lived in good health—also showing notable improvement.
Moreover, with technological advancements and changes in the economic structure, reliance on purely labor-intensive jobs has sharply declined, increasing knowledge-based and skilled positions and providing more opportunities for extending working years.
Zhao Zhong emphasized that increased life expectancy implies that the age at which individuals can continue engaging in productive activities has also risen. Through institutional reforms, it is possible to expand better the labor force, which is of great significance for the country's socio-economic development.
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