Opinion | It's time to rethink China, insights from renowned scholar Kishore Mahbubani
Former Singaporean diplomat and renowned scholar Kishore Mahbubani recently said that "Chinese civilization will have at least another 100 good years," once again drawing global attention to China.
What makes this remark particularly notable is the unwavering and clear stance Mahbubani has maintained over the years, a position he has arrived at through extensive research. His nationality, however, adds an intriguing twist—Mahbubani is an Indian Singaporean, which makes his perspective all the more admirable, albeit somewhat perplexing.
After all, it is rare to find an Indian individual with such a clear and rational political mind. Even Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi might struggle to fully agree with him on this matter.
However, if one were to learn of Mahbubani's ability to persuade Li Ka-shing, one of Asia's wealthiest individuals, to willingly donate 500 million Hong Kong dollars to the National University of Singapore in just three minutes, the world might hold Mahbubani in even greater esteem.
Kishore Mahbubani's credentials are indeed impressive. From 1971 to 2004, he served as Singapore's Permanent Representative to the United Nations. He also held the position of President of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) from January 2001 to May 2002. Following his diplomatic career, he became the Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.
In 2015, during a speech at Harvard Kennedy School, Mahbubani asserted that the United States, in its handling of the South China Sea sovereignty disputes, needed to "earn some good karma and leave an exit route for itself" by setting an example and adhering to international rules. He pointed out that China has no history of overseas colonization; when Zheng He sailed to the Western seas, he brought joy and laughter, not colonial exploitation. In contrast, the United States and the United Kingdom spread gunfire and missiles around the world. He also noted that in 2014, China saw over 100 million outbound trips. If China were truly the "hell on earth" depicted by Western media, those 100 million people would not have returned.
On June 1, 2018, in a speech at the Fair Winds Foundation, Mahbubani stated that Western democracy had become the "final form" of political systems, lulling Western nations into a state of complacency, making them completely unaware of China's gradual awakening and rise.
In his 2020 book Has China Won?: The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy, Mahbubani argued that the United States had made three major mistakes: First, the US assumed it would always be the world's number one power and could not imagine a world where it was not in the lead, leaving it unprepared for the possibility of becoming the second-largest power. Second, the U.S. government had become a rigid, inflexible collective decision-making system that could not learn from its failures, often ignoring them altogether, resulting in a strategy of "yesterday's rules of war lead to today's (or tomorrow's) successes". Third, the U.S. believed it was the greatest contributor to the world and the best country globally. It was a sentiment rooted in the American imagination—nothing more than a self-indulgent, narcissistic fantasy, far from the truth.
On January 18, 2023, during a speech at the DBS Outlook Forum, Mahbubani declared that the era of Western dominance in world history was ending. Yet, Western countries were unwilling to accept this reality.
In an interview published by Lianhe Zaobao on August 11, Mahbubani candidly expressed that after seeing some Westerners with ulterior motives intentionally "talking down China," he described himself as a "China optimist."
In Mahbubani's view, China's main challenge is dealing with the United States in the realm of geopolitics, a challenge the U.S. has completely underestimated. He pointed out that the U.S. has underestimated the ability of the Chinese people and the Chinese government to find practical solutions. Ultimately, the West generally holds a pessimistic view of China and its prospects. He always remains optimistic about China's long-term prospects.
Obviously, Mahbubani's optimism stems from his understanding of China's history and the cyclical nature of Chinese civilization. After experiencing decline, Chinese civilization always rebounds strongly.
Mahbubani also believes that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is one of the most meritocratic organizations in the world, a fact that many Westerners avoid discussing. He insisted that Chinese policymakers often have a higher level of thought than their American and European counterparts.
Mahbubani predicts that no matter who becomes the next U.S. president, Sino-U.S. relations will inevitably worsen. Washington has a strong political consensus that China must be prevented from becoming the world's number one power, which is seen as being in the U.S. national interest.
He used to predict that whoever wins the U.S. presidential election will put more pressure on China. The U.S. believes it has about 10 years to prevent China's rise, so it will undoubtedly use this time to increase pressure on China. However, the U.S. will still be unable to contain China. Mahbubani praises China for setting a "positive example" for the world by addressing global challenges proactively and actively maintaining multilateral cooperation for mutual benefit.
As a former President of the UNSC, Mahbubani's deep and broad understanding of global affairs has led him to hold an optimistic view of China's continued development consistently. His conclusions are based on his insights into Chinese culture, history, and governance. One of his most convincing arguments is the decision-making and leadership level of the CCP, which is focused on improving the standard of living for the Chinese people, striving to create a happier and more prosperous life for its citizens. The achievements of China's 40-plus years of reform and opening up have far surpassed the development of major Western countries over the past 400 years, naturally causing anxiety among white supremacists and leading to the suppression of China's peaceful rise by Western societies.
(English Editor: Liu Mingyu, Felicia Li)
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