Opinion | Exploring Hong Kong's demographic situations: Migration and birth rate

The Census and Statistics Department recently has released the latest population statistics of Hong Kong. The provisional figure of Hong Kong's population at the end of 2023 is 7,503,100, representing an increase of 30,500 persons, or 0.4%, when compared with the population of 7,472,600 at the end of 2022. It is worth noting that Hong Kong's natural population has been decreasing for four consecutive years. In the past year, the number of deaths was 54,400 while the number of births was 33,200, meaning that there were more deaths than births. Although the number of births has rebounded slightly from the low of 32,500 in 2022, it is still almost 40% lower than the average annual number of over 50,000 in 2019 or before.

The figures show that the population increase between the end of 2022 and the end of 2023 is mainly attributable to the net inflow (i.e. more inflows than outflows) of 51,700 Hong Kong residents during the period, comprising the inflow of 40,800 One-Way Permit (OWP) holders, and the net inflow of 10,800 other Hong Kong residents. There are two points of concern. First, the daily quota of 150 OWPs granted by the Mainland for the purpose of family reunion, which is about 54,750 for the whole year, has not been fully utilized, with a balance of 13,950. This shows that, given the continuous socio-economic development in the Mainland and the fact that the general public are able to strive for better development as well as enjoying great improvement and protection in their living in the Mainland, Hong Kong is no longer entirely a paradise in the world that the mainlanders eagerly yearn for. Gone are the days when it was difficult to obtain a single permit and one had to spend millions of dollars through illegal channels in order to travel to and from Hong Kong.

If this situation persists, it is very likely that the spouses of families living in Hong Kong will turn around and migrate to the Mainland for family reunion. In the long run, this will directly affect the demographic ecology of Hong Kong. For this reason, the authorities should proactively communicate closely with the relevant state departments, so as to get a clear picture of the underutilization of the OWP quota and find out the reasons for it, whether there are a considerable number of separated families who have no intention to apply for entry into Hong Kong, or they have given up applying for entry into Hong Kong directly, or whether there are other reasons and considerations, so as to make preparations for the rainy days, and to formulate a population policy with a more long-term vision of development.

Another issue of concern is that, although some anti-China and destabilizing forces have spread rumors and smeared Hong Kong, including the "Hong Kong Watch" which even used almost triad-like tones to smear and threaten the international community, and distorted the legislation on Article 23, those who are really sensible still analyze rationally and see that Hong Kong's national security law and the legislation on Article 23 are able to create a harmonious social environment in which Hong Kong can live in peace and work in contentment, and therefore, they can choose to go back to Hong Kong resolutely. Although there are only about 10,000 people in the population concerned, these 10,000 people have great demonstrative and persuasive power, and they can encourage more Hong Kong people who have migrated and settled overseas and who are not doing well to return to their hometowns. This is just like the wave of emigration that broke out in the 1990s, just before the handover of the last century. Although more than 500,000 people were lost at that time, they had no choice but to return to Hong Kong after the handover when they saw that Hong Kong society was thriving, and that it is difficult for them to earn good salaries and wages when they are far away from their hometown.

Hong Kong's population is growing for the second consecutive year after the recovery, and the main reasons for this are the following. First, many Hong Kong residents who were stranded outside Hong Kong during the epidemic were returning to Hong Kong gradually in 2023; second, some of those who chose to emigrate to overseas countries are not satisfied with their lives overseas and have chosen to return to Hong Kong; third, the various talent schemes launched by the Government have attracted more than 240,000 people to apply enthusiastically, of which at least 140,000 people have already been approved to emigrate to Hong Kong. Of course, among these 140,000 people, there are also some people who have been approved to come to Hong Kong but are unable to do so due to other factors such as family problems, and so on. Fourth, with the steady progress of the enactment of legislation on National Security Law and Article 23, the rule of law of Hong Kong will become even more sound and perfect, and the international community's confidence in the sustained and quality development of Hong Kong in the future will be greatly enhanced, and as a result, capital-driven international businessmen and investors will choose to make a big splash in Hong Kong, which will then bring about an increase in the population, but it is only because of the extreme mobility of these people that the Government seems to have failed to keep track of the increase in population. However, it is believed that with the completion of the legislation on Article 23, a more just, fair, transparent and clear environment under the rule of law will be given to the international capital market, and more people from the business sector will definitely be attracted to Hong Kong for development. Earlier on, some data show that the number of newly registered companies in Hong Kong continuously increases in 2023, which is the strongest proof.

The HKSAR Government said yesterday that the year-on-year population growth in mid-2023 reached 190,000, of which "other net migration" accounted for 181,000, representing an upward adjustment of about 38,000 and 7,000 respectively compared with that of mid-2022. During this period, the number of immigrants exceeded the number of emigrants, with a net inflow of over 51,000, offsetting the "natural decrease" and the year-on-year increase of 30,500 in the total population. These immigrants came from different classes, supplementing the demand for different types of manpower in Hong Kong's labor market and helping to alleviate the problem of an aging population.

Quality talents from all over the world, including those from the Mainland, are competing to settle in Hong Kong. Such encouraging choices by these highly intelligent talents with international vision and backgrounds are surely the most convincing vote of confidence in the future of Hong Kong. Legislative Councillor and Founding President of the Hong Kong Top Talent Services Association, Mr. Jesse Shang Hailong, said yesterday that Hong Kong possesses the advantages of "one country, two systems", which is widely recognized and accepted by the international community, is a very attractive option for mainland professionals. At present, more than 240,000 people have applied to come to Hong Kong through various talent programs, of which more than 140,000 have already been approved, "the numerical dividend of talents has initially taken shape."

Despite all the good demographic news, various sectors of the community are still concerned about the fact that the birth rate in Hong Kong has dropped sharply by 40%. Objectively speaking, although the actual effectiveness of the HK$20,000 incentive offered by the Government to encourage births has yet to be observed and it is still controversial whether it is necessary to increase the incentive to encourage births, it is an indisputable fact that Hong Kong people are reluctant to get married and give birth to children. Nowadays, although scenes of passionate love affairs on the streets abound, it is indeed a fact that there are more fur babies than children on the streets, and the interest of young people in keeping dogs and cats far exceeds that of keeping children, so why is there a serious lack of motivation for young people to give birth to babies?

The key problem lies in the fact that the pressure of living, such as housing, is too great, and there must be a home to give birth to and raise a child, right? Even animals know that they should have a home first and then a child, and they cannot give birth to a child on the street. Therefore, in the face of the hidden danger of a drastic drop in the birth rate, which is affecting or even hindering the sustainable development of society, the authorities should actively put themselves in the shoes of the younger generation and consider, among other things, giving priority to the purchase of Home Ownership Scheme flats, awarding extra points in public housing applications, subsidizing their children's education, and even subsidizing them to take out medical insurance for their babies and young children, so as to create more facilitating conditions for them, and to enable them to be secure and worry-free. Frankly speaking, the incentive of HK$20,000 is really not strong enough.