Opinion | The tug of war over Vietnam

By Tom Fowdy

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has commenced an official state visit to Vietnam. Here, he is meeting with "Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, President Vo Van Thuong and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh." During the visit, 37 agreements were signed between the two countries including "including on cross-border rail development and trade." Chinese state media proclaimed that the strategic partnership between the two had been taken to a "new level". However, the situation is far more geopolitically complex than appears.

Vietnam, China's immediate neighbor to the south, is pursuing a "best of both worlds" foreign policy with all major powers. Xi's official visit to Hanoi is more based on an anxiety that if China does not put itself at the table, it ultimately gets left out. That is because in recent months, Vietnam has upgraded its diplomatic relationships with both Japan and the United States, two countries hostile to China, to the strategic partnership level. Such moves of course have an eye on China itself, forcing Beijing to play to be in the game.

Although both countries are Communist States in ideology, and share a revolutionary heritage that sees Communism as a tool to expel foreign imperialism from their respective countries, the reality is that Vietnam has a deep and historically entrenched apprehension of China. That is because Hanoi sees Beijing as a historical threat to its own independence and nationhood, with northern Vietnam having been ruled by China in the past. Vietnamese nationalism, as a result, is vehemently anti-China.

But these historical disputes feed into modern-day tensions too. In 1978, a war between China and Vietnam, backed by the two superpowers, created a rift between the two countries. Not only that, but the two countries also have distinctly overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea, and in this area, Vietnam sees China's presence as a threat to its own security and national sovereignty, because Chinese domination of the sea stands to encircle its entire naval periphery.

Because of this, Vietnam actively courts Western powers, while nonetheless ensuring that it does not appear to be openly antagonistic towards Beijing. Economics provides a valuable degree of restraint between the two countries because they are deeply integrated trading partners. Vietnam has also become a distinction for both Chinese and Western companies to invest in manufacturing as its labor force is abundant and also cheaper than China, with the US and its allies attempting to use this as a strategic gambit against Beijing. As a result, Vietnam is involved in an extension of the supply chain which nonetheless sources Chinese components and parts for various products but can pretend to be an alternative to the "made in China" label.

Thus, a diplomatic tug of war over the loyalty of Vietnam has emerged amongst great powers. To give an explicit example, the United States is investing HK$1 billion into the creation of a new embassy compound in the country, showing how seriously they take the relationship with Hanoi. That is of course a historical irony, given the United States is known for its unprecedented cruelty and civilian deaths in the Vietnam War through napalm bombing. However despite this, as is often the case, the US is very popular amongst the Vietnamese population due to its cultural soft power, and there is also no lasting resentment over the Vietnam War because Vietnam in fact sees itself as having won and triumphed over them, allowing them to approach their relationship with the US with confidence and forgiveness.

The same cannot be said in managing its larger northern neighbor. In moving forward, Vietnam will continue to operate in a non-aligned position and will never truly become an "ally" of either country, as this will undermine its long-established foreign policy position. Vietnam will continue to maximize its political options in order to ensure its own independence and of course, spread out the benefits for itself. If the US and China are both willing to invest overwhelmingly in you, why would you take sides or antagonize either? Hanoi has put up a high price tag for maintaining neutrality in this respective geopolitical conflict, and in doing so it recognizes it can not only secure itself but also attain the dream of its own development and become another industrialized giant.

The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

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