Opinion | The New Detente

By Tom Fowdy

The Xi-Biden summit on the sidelines of the APEC meeting in San Francisco is undoubtedly the most significant breakthrough in US-China relations since the Trump administration made the decision to deteriorate ties in 2018. Although the meeting itself arguably hasn't produced any substance pertaining to changes in US policies towards China, it has nonetheless significantly calmed the mood and shifted the paradigm back to a more moderate position which has alleviated tensions and paved the way for engagement.

I want to talk from my own personal experience. The past few years for me personally have been horrific, that's because those who called for a hostile and confrontational approach towards Beijing dominated the debate, promoting fear, hatred, McCarthyism, paranoia and scapegoating. I bore the brunt of that, which was deeply exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, the closing of people-to-people ties with China and the shockwaves from events such as the invasion of Ukraine. I stood my ground, but it has been emotionally tough on me.

So, when I see US-China relations improve, it makes me comfortable and happy because in reality, it's what I've hoped for all along but ultimately been forced on the defensive by the relentless bile often spewed by media and politicians. Thus, when I look on social media and I see hawkish voices throwing tantrums at the summit, it's a sign that they've been marginalized, and it's long overdue. Although the policies have not changed, the tone has, and in turn this has paved the way for a new path of engagement between China and other US allies.

It is no coincidence after all, that David Cameron has been appointed UK Foreign Secretary at this time. When there was a demand for hawkishness, it was given to Liz Truss, but now it's a time for engagement, the pendulum has swung back. Similarly, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visited Beijing, an "coincidental" press leak revealed that the Canadian government had lied pertaining to the "Two Michaels" and espionage, and even Lithuania who burnt its bridges with China over that Taiwan Representative Office, is seeking normalization again.

Of course, it is unsettling that the US controls the rhythm of political debate in these countries as it sees fit through the machinery of the media it operates. It consequentially speaks louder than words that Washington can go from accusing a country of genocide to suddenly hosting its leader in a grand banquet in San Francisco. This inconsistency only underlines the inherent opportunism and moral inconsistency of US foreign policy which is driven ultimately by national interests. This is not new to me I have also seen how a Presidency has gone from demonizing the evil of North Korea, bigging up its defectors, amplifying the Otto Warmbier story and then suddenly meeting Kim Jong un.

For America, the media is only a theatre and what's on the stage is subject to change as it sees fit. That means on the other hand, there is less reason to be optimistic because as soon as the United States decides it is in its interests to raise tensions with China again, it will do so, and will create a media firestorm over any issue it sees fit, almost at magic. Given that the US election is close we cannot take any of this newly found breathing space for granted, because this is the period whereby US hysteria, personal attacks and thus posturing by politicians, gets to a tedious all-time high. Biden obviously has attempted to frame this summit as a "win" for American interests, but we all know the Republicans have very different ideas.

On a foreign policy level, some considerations behind this "change of course" involve the poor global economic climate, the recognition engagement remains important by both sides accordingly, an incorporation of views from US allies, but also the growing pressure that conflicts in Ukraine and Israel are putting on the priorities of American leadership. It is therefore "tactical" to put China on the back burner, to create a détente, but will it last? Nothing is guaranteed in US politics. The two sides are going to keep to working on bilateral relations save the most aggressive voices again will yet have their day. China has to continue to make dovish approaches to Washington, avoid empowering hawks and exert strategic patience.

For now, we only have a softer version of the same paradigm, and is the US suddenly going to decide China isn't its biggest competitor anymore and is all forgiven? Of course not. This is a country that doesn't even tolerate it amongst its friends, let alone its foes, but let the two sides compete civilly, without creating fears of a new world war or cold war, whereby everyone loses.

The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:

Opinion | Canada's chickens come home to roost - the truth comes out about the 'Two Michaels'

Opinion | David Cameron and the direction of UK-China relations

Opinion | Will the APEC summit herald a breakthrough in US-China ties

Opinion | Internal strife in Ukraine grows as leadership clashes over war path