Opinion | The screw turning on New Zealand has begun
By Tom Fowdy
If there's one thing you should understand, it is that the United States always gets its own way over allies. There may be disagreements, doubts or even open disdain for US foreign policy goals, yet bar a few exceptional moments allied states almost always give in to conforming to American preferences in the end, at least half-heartedly. Likewise, when such disagreements occur, never does Washington "give up" and "cut its losses" but continues to press that ally no matter what, and non-cooperation is usually responded to by the US going ahead and doing what it wants anyway (see: The Iraq War).
Why does this come to my mind? I'd like to point to a few developments. First of all, on a smaller note, is Italy's purported decision to leave the Belt and Road initiative, a move which was always blasphemous for a member of G7 to commit. More importantly, however, was the release of a report by New Zealand's (US co-opted) intelligence services claiming that China has been interfering in the country's elections. We know New Zealand of course to be the openly member of the "five eyes" or "Anglosphere" alliance which seeks a friendly and cooperative relationship with Beijing, much to the disdain of the US and others.
The release of the report, and the hyping up of it by US-sponsored figures in the country such as Anne Marie-Bradie, only goes to show how America is ramping up its influence networks to produce a shift in Wellington's foreign policy which will see it more deeply align with Washington's goals. For me, a British person, this seems all too familiar. The United States excels in ways which people greatly underestimate, in its ability to manipulate the affairs and steer the discourse of other countries in ways which conforms to its foreign policy goals. Few people actually realize what is happening, and those who do so are ignored or branded conspiracy theories.
The United States uses its monopoly over English language news discourse, combined with its ability to use its impressive government resources, to co-opt the mainstream media agenda around the world and create narratives which conform to its foreign policy preferences. Aiding this process is a legion of think-tanks which it sponsors, all pushing its talking points and intended goals, all which are depicted as legitimate experts and feed the news narrative of the targeted countries accordingly. For example, a report on Taiwan? The spokesperson is Bonnie Glaser. Report on US militarisation of the Indo-Pacific? The spokesman is Derek J. Grossman. Report on Xinjiang? It's Adrian Zenz.
These three individuals are just to name a few, but all have belonged to think tanks either funded directly by the US government and its military-industrial complex. They come and go depending on what the specific agenda is, but nonetheless are case studies of mass media manipulation in the name of US preferences. Similarly, the US uses its links to intelligence services within its sphere of influence in order to shape discourse and debate in the countries it desires. Whether it be using Danish intelligence services to undermine the country's own Eurofighter program, or to even spy on its own government, or the rest of Scandinavia, or manipulating the foreign intelligence services of New Zealand and Canada to ramp up paranoia, the process is the same.
The Canada example in particular shows how the US is capable of wielding such in order to completely derail a country's political debate and destroy its relationship with China through promulgating mass hysteria. New Zealand has always been the "odd duck" of the five eyes due to its highly lucrative trade dependency on China, which has led to a far more conciliatory tone. The present administration is not prepared to tolerate this, in particular because it is aggressively co-opting countries in the Asia-Pacific to take sides with it, form closer partnerships and accept a deeper military presence. While the Trump administration's diplomacy was often coercive and self-destructive, the Biden administration's approach has been very proactive and is much better at getting what it wants.
While New Zealand has been more favorable to China, all it takes is for the US to manipulate public discourse and get opinion to turn, to whip up controversy, scandal, fear, hysteria and therefore create an incentive for opposition politicians to see opportunity and power in opposing China, just like it has done in so many other countries. Once that is achieved, the logical and rational option of keeping ties warm is sunk, irrespective of the actual harm it might cause. The US turns screws on all allied countries who defy its line. I once naively believed the UK had an independent China policy which refused to listen to the US on a number of issues, such as for example Huawei 5G. I was taken back at how swiftly that was demolished and Washington's line was then made the prevailing orthodoxy. New Zealand is a bit different to Britain of course circumstantially, but that doesn't mean they won't try.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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