By Dr. Kevin Lau
Although the world has gradually emerged from the shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic, the reality is that the economic situation is not as expected, as seen by analysts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Due to the turbulence in the financial industry, high inflation, the ongoing impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the three-year-long pandemic that has ravaged the world, their forecast for the global economic outlook can be summarized in one word: "uncertain."
A few days ago, President Xi chaired a meeting of the Central Political Bureau, which not only analyzed the current economic situation but, more importantly, laid out the economic work for the second half of the year. Conducting a "mid-year review" at this time is crucial. Only by clearly understanding the domestic and international situations, coordinating development and security, ensuring the continuous recovery of the national economy, and achieving overall improvement can the previously set goals for annual economic and social development be realized by the end of the year.
The current international economic environment is quite challenging. According to the IMF's baseline projections, global economic growth is expected to decline from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.8% this year, with a particularly noticeable slowdown in developed economies, dropping from 2.7% in 2022 to 1.3% this year.
The significant slowdown in developed economies naturally leads to weakened demand for Chinese products. The relationship between the two is closely intertwined, and it is evident that the aforementioned meeting of the Central Political Bureau has taken this issue into serious consideration. The meeting proposed many directional suggestions in response to the current situation. As a writer, I'm particularly interested in the two proposals of "Promote the construction of a modern industrial system, accelerating the cultivation and development of strategic emerging industries, and creating more pillar industries" and "meticulously organizing the Third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation." I believe these two proposals can not only help the country cope with the current challenging economic environment but also have a close connection to Hong Kong's economic development. Hong Kong's development under these two initiatives demonstrates that the future economic development of the country is full of vitality.
Breaking free from difficulties often requires innovation. Promoting the development of the digital economy, advanced manufacturing, and fostering the development of artificial intelligence is not only a global trend but also guarantees faster economic development. The digital economy has become one of the main driving forces for global economic growth. The meeting of the Central Political Bureau specifically emphasized the development of the digital economy, elevating it to a national-level development strategy, which is a correct decision. Taking Hong Kong as an example, after years of government efforts, Hong Kong now possesses advantages in computing power, data, and talent in the development of artificial intelligence and has reached a leading position globally. The government's recent proposals to establish an artificial intelligence supercomputing center and develop microelectronics research have resulted in over 700 companies settling in Cyberport and the Science Park within a year, including high-quality enterprises from both mainland China and overseas.
Similarly, the "Belt and Road" can bring significant stimulus to the country's future economic development. The BRI includes ASEAN countries, countries in West Asia and the Middle East, South Asian countries, Central Asian countries, Central and Eastern European countries, and others. These countries are potential markets with great development potential. Collaborating with these countries can offset the issue of weak demand from developed economies. At the time of writing, Chief Executive John Lee is visiting Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, three ASEAN member countries. This clearly demonstrates that Hong Kong understands the significance of investing in the BRI for economic development.
The author is a specialist in radiology with a Master of Public Health from the University of Hong Kong, and an adviser of Our Hong Kong Foundation.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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