Opinion | Kerry's visit to Beijing for climate talks may leave him eating dust kicked up by Yellen
By Augustus K. Yeung
INTRODUCTION
"We three kings from Orient," these biblical buzzwords best capture the picture of three top diplomats to Beijing. This time, they're from Washington, not the Orient!
The tide has turned in China's favor.
John Kerry whose talks on climate was called off by China over the Nancy Pelosi saga. The warm reminder Yellen gave before returning to Washington shows how the US side pins great hopes on these three-legged visits.
Kerry's visit is on the hot heels of Janel Yellen. She was preceded by Antony Blinken who talked with Xi Jinping. These three visits in two months are well-planned, well-orchestrated.
In Blinken's visit, his request for military-to-military communication was denied, leaving Yellen's visit the only obvious hope of success.
Given Yellen's success, the channels of business and finance communications are now wide-open.
John Kerry's visit, however, may be a mixture of pressure and pleasure. For one thing, China has repeatedly stressed that it is a developing country; it shouldn't be subject to "the same climate standards" as the U.S. and other big Western economies, signifying that his talks may not be easy.
The Chinese can give Kerry pleasure – if he delivers the message to Washington that Lloyd Austin, the belligerent military chief – who twice inspired altruistic 'suicidal' inclinations among individual PLA fighter planes and naval ships – remains a thorn in U.S.-China bilateral relations.
If Kerry can convey the message and convince Biden to sack Austin for security's sake, he will be held in great honor in China.
These visits look like a standard "comprehensive insurance coverage." And the Chinese side should use this window of opportunity as leverage to pressure Washington – to drop Austin and prop up Kerry's diplomatic achievement.
For a better understanding of these three wise Washingtonians' visits to the Middle Kingdom, the reader should take a look at the following newspaper account.
Kerry will travel to China for a four-day visit, to resume his talks on climate change
U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry will travel to Beijing on Sunday, July 16 to discuss strategies for limiting global warming, bearing in mind a push by the world's two largest economies to reengage on multiple issues following a sharp decline in contacts.
Kerry's office said he will arrive Sunday and depart July 19. He is due to meet with his counterpart Xie Zhenhua – with whom he has established a strong working relationship.
"During meetings with PRC officials, Secretary Kerry aims to engage with them on addressing the climate crisis, including with respect to increasing implementation and ambition and promoting a successful COP28," Kerry's office said in a press release. It also mentioned China's participation in the UN Climate Change Conference – scheduled to be held in the United Arab Emirates in November and December.
A Reminder to China from Janet Yellen Paves the Way for John Kerry…
Kerry's visit comes on the heels of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who appealed to China on Saturday for cooperation – on climate change and other global challenges – and not to let disagreements about trade and other irritants derail relations.
In a meeting with her Chinse counterpart, Vice Premier He Lifeng, Yellen defended U.S. restrictions on technology exports that rankle Beijing. She said the two governments shouldn't let such disagreements disrupt thriving economic and financial relations.
During a visit last month, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and said they agreed to "stabilize" badly deteriorated U.S.-China ties – but America's top diplomat left Beijing with his biggest ask rebuffed: NO high-level communications between their militaries.
After meeting Xi, Blinken said China is not ready to resume military-to-military contacts, something the U.S. considers crucial to avoid miscalculation and conflict, particularly over Taiwan.
These visits represent efforts to revive relations that are at their lowest level in decades due to disputes over trade (T2), technology (T3) and regional security. Beijing broke off climate discussions with Washington last August in retaliation for a visit by then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi of the House of Representatives to Taiwan (T1).
Kerry has said China needs to step up its carbon reduction targets that now have it hitting peak output in 2030 and becoming carbon neutral in 2060.
China, however, has resisted pressure to rapidly phase out coal plants, arguing that China is still a developing nation and should not be held to the same climate standards as the U.S. and other big Western economies. (Source: MDT/AP)
CONCLUSION
China takes its 3Ts (trade, technology and Taiwan) seriously. That's why Yellen got flying colors in her visit to Beijing. Her reputation as a seasoned economist and pragmatist has made her task relatively easy.
However, John Kerry's portfolio is one that has a limited mandate and a timeframe that stretches nearly half a century – from 2023 to 2030 to 2060 – leaving both sides "time" to tackle climate change.
But time is on China's side: President Biden must now begin to show his report card to the American voters; vicious archrival Donald Trump is hot on his heels.
Both countries share the same serious concern that their militaries must communicate. But the PLA experience with Lloyd Austin is personally unpleasant and totally negative. Given his acts of violence over the joint drills with the Philippines navy, the "Balikatan", which they perceive as "intimidating" and "humiliating".
The patriotic Chinese military sees Austin as a "security threat". China welcomes American navy ships seeking solace in its warm-watered harbor ports, a soothing example of good relations in their rainbow days. Not blasting up the "Balikatan"!
The Chinese are simply too subtle to reflect such a mirror horror image – as Xi Jinping and the U.S. president enjoy a decade-long cordial relationship. In Chinese culture, people, especially political leaders take relationships seriously.
John Kelly can hold talks with his Chinese counterpart, but the process may be long, depending on his efforts to help remove the "threat" Austin presents.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Augustus K. Yeung:
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