Opinion | Secrets of Sino-U.S. war and peace as China's PLA sees it

By Augustus K. Yeung

INTRODUCTION

Observers would agree that when it comes to connecting security ties and building trade relations, China is on the active side. When it comes to military maneuvers and mobilizations, it is the U.S. defense ministry that is calling the shots.

China is and always has been on the side of response.

For example, from the once and again – seemingly forever – building of military bases in the Philippines to joint naval drills known to China's PLA as the gunboat "Balikatan", to the shooting down of the "spy" balloon over the U.S. airspace, the U.S. military under chief Lloyd Austin has been seen as bullying China, resulting in pent-up feelings of animosity in the patriotic Chinese military.

Beijing may be patient and responsive to U.S. military provocations, but individual rank and files are feeling sense of humiliation, frustration – leading to unconscious "altruistic suicides", psychological tendencies that worth scrutiny.

The U.S. Navy on Sunday complained about an "unsafe interaction" in the Taiwan Strait, after a Chinese warship came within 150 yards of a U.S. destroyer.

Last month, a Chinese fighter jet flew dangerously close to a U.S. reconnaissance aircraft over the South China Sea.

All these "unexpected" and dangerous responses to U.S. "provocations" are worth studying.

The US may have been aware of these dangerous signals, but it is expected that their side may not be fully aware of the psychological impacts of U.S. and its allies' actions have been on the PLA.

These patterns of action and reaction illustrate what some top diplomats have been warning as the U.S. and China "sleep-walking" into conflicts.

CIA Director William Burns last month reportedly took a secret trip to Beijing. This may have been a sign that the two sides are seriously in trouble.

Senior Diplomats from both sides urgently held talks in Beijing…

Senior U.S. and Chinese diplomats held "candid and productive" talks in Beijing and agreed to keep open lines of communication to avoid tensions from spiraling into conflicts, officials said.

Daniel Kritenbrink, assistant U.S. secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, was the most senior U.S. official confirmed to have visited China on Monday since tensions between Washington and Beijing soared over the shooting down of a Chinese "spy" balloon over the U.S. in early February.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken at the time postponed a planned trip to China, and Beijing has since rebuffed attempts at official exchanges.

China's Foreign Ministry said Kritenbrink and Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhanoxu "had candid constructive and fruitful communication on promoting the improvement of China-U.S. relations and properly managing differences."

The Taiwan Strait and the mutually antagonistic military on both sides constitute the most dangerous flash point…

Beijing said it had stated its "solemn position on Taiwan" and other issues and that the two sides had agreed to maintain "communication".

The U.S. Statement Department also said the two officials held "candid and productive discussions as part of ongoing efforts to maintain open lines of communication..."

The U.S. Navy on Sunday complained about an "unsafe interaction" in the Taiwan Strait, after a Chinese warship came within 150 yards of a U.S. destroyer. And last month, a Chinese fighter jet flew dangerously close to a U.S. reconnaissance aircraft over the South China Sea, where Beijing shares overlapping territorial claims with other nations.

CIA Director William Burns last month reportedly took a secret trip to Beijing in another sign the two sides are interested in "restoring communication" through various channels. (Source: MDT/AP)

CONCLUSION

Will mere verbosity or talks, however sincere, be effective and efficient enough to forestall military conflicts between the U.S. and China?

Has anyone been aware that General Li Shangfu, the chief of Defense Ministry, made a point of saluting his audience – before delivering his speech at the Shangri-La in Singapore?

These consequential questions should lead to analysis of U.S.-China patterns of military interaction now that the U.S. side has made it a point to focus on "communication" between the two sides.

Traditionally, the Chinese culture prescribes that its diplomats and military colleagues should resort to salutations rather than acts-of-war. This is their first art of war, putting peace before activation of all military attempts.

Saluting the audience may have been General Li subtle way of telling his American counterpart of the art of war, meaning the PLA will always be polite to the American counterparts – before resorting to force.

However, verbosity or talks and salutations will not be sufficient to deter conflicts given the volatile situation such as the Taiwan Strait, the world's most dangerous flash point, in my opinion.

The logical implications: As long as Lloyd Austin is around as the chief of U.S. defense ministry, as long as he continues to single-handedly resort to building bases as ways of circling the Chinese military… this man's physical presence and influence is perceived as a threat, provoking military conflicts in the South Chinese Sea in general, and the Taiwan Strait in particular.

The most uncomfortable implication of this analysis is that the man, Lloyd Austin and the messages that he has been sending to China are unmistakably confrontational and provocative, making him a war- machine.

If Austin is around, the threats of war are imminent.

Alternatively, the PLA is actively expecting another U.S. chief of defense who is both a brave soldier and a brilliant scholar.

More particularly, they are hoping for a new U.S. military leader who can put peace before "preparing-for-war". For example, it would be wonderful to have the old days of romance when the U.S, Naval personnel felt welcomed to China, and be comfortable enough to make ports of call.

Strategically, this is the most preferable way for President Joe Biden – whose overall rational strategy is "deterrence".

Only a warmonger would resort to building military bases around China, stepping up violent joint drills and yet expect the ultra "patriots" in the PLA to be bullied and remain silent.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

 

Read more articles by Augustus K. Yeung:

Opinion | China's business partners give lessons to U.S. on benefits of cooperation

Opinion | No more meetings, no more talks on the phone with chief Lloyd Austin