Opinion | Brazil can be the next emerging power of the 21st century

By Tom Fowdy

Last week, the President of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva made an official visit to Beijing to meet with his counterpart Xi Jinping, where he pledged to "change world governance" together, working with China. The two countries signed a litany of agreements, including on environment, technology, manufacturing, and currency, as well as setting out their own peace proposals to end the war in Ukraine. Lula, very much known for his left-wing stance, praised the "extraordinary" relationship with China, turning away from previous President Bolsonaro's pro-US stance.

It may be hard to conceive it, due to its present circumstances, but Brazil is a vital player in the emergence of a multipolar world. In many respects, the country has experienced great turmoil, including an economic crisis which over the past decade, has seen its GDP effectively half, leading to political upheavals. It's also a country that suffers from immense wealth inequality and poverty, which has long been dominated by a very small class of wealthy white elites, a nod to the historical reality that the country was a creation of Portuguese Imperialism, and built on the back of slavery and racism.

But that does not mean Brazil does not have the potential to one day exert itself as a major geopolitical player, provided of course it can overcome its woes. Geography matters, Brazil is the 3rd largest country in the Americas, and the 2ndmost populous. If it were not for Alaska, Brazil would be geographically larger than the United States itself. Given these circumstances, Brazil has the unique position of being the only country in the Western hemisphere that has the capacity to be a long-term competitor of the US itself, and thus to be a "multipolar" player in the world today. That is almost certainly Lula's vision for the country, and he recognizes partnership with China and BRICS as a whole is a critical aspect of doing so.

US hegemony, however, especially within the region of the Americas, depends on Brazil being kept perpetually poor, favoring the status quo of the country's current ruling classes. The US foreign policy strategy known as "The Monroe Doctrine" has long sought to keep the western hemisphere the sole geopolitical domain of the United States and to prevent the entry, or emergence of, any rival political power. In committing to this, the US has pursued scores of regime changes, coups, sporadic acts of interference, and even outright war, to topple and remove governments it deemed hostile, while propping up right-wing authoritarian governments who have been favorable to Washington.

The most recent example of such interference in South America involved the failed US regime change attempt against Nicholas Maduro in Venezuela. In pursuing the Monroe Doctrine, Washington has long sought to maintain control over oil and other critical resources present in South America. While it has long acquiesced Ecuador and Colombia as US-friendly states, it sought to cripple socialist Venezuela with sanctions and install its self-appointed "interim" President of Juan Guaido. The right-wing leaning Brazil of Jair Bolsonaro was a key ally in this effort. However, the regime change, the brainchild of John Bolton during his time in the Trump administration, failed to take hold and the Biden administration relented as the global oil market turned unfavorable amidst the Ukraine war.

It is little surprise, with Washington's pervasive influence, and the deep abiding political polarization of Brazil amidst its current turmoil, the now current President Lula, was subsequently tried and indicted on politically motivated charges in the bid to try and discredit his political comeback. This only shows the scale of the challenge ahead of him, now back in office, to try and create a fairer, more just, and prosperous Brazil, and he is well aware that without China he cannot do so. China is Brazil's largest export market, a critical source of inbound investment and jobs, as well as an important partner in providing infrastructure.

While the US has proposed botched alternatives to the Belt and Road Initiative, often floated on hyperbole or questionable funding commitments, China has long been a champion of the global south and a critical partner for its development, as an alternative and opportunity to escape the US imposed neoliberal economic order. It is precise because of this that many Latin American countries, such as for example Honduras in its decision to open ties with Beijing several weeks ago, are turning to China, that is because the old order, the US-led Monroe Doctrine system, has oppressed rather than enabled this region of the world, condemning South America to perpetual poverty, crime, outflows of people northwards, and political turmoil. But Brazil is the best-positioned country in this continent to shape a new future that serves the interests of its people, to make South America a major geopolitical player in the world, and enter a new era of growth, prosperity and poverty alleviation.

The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:

Opinion | America's Suez moment

Opinion | Macron's rebuke illustrates the delusion of US strategists

Opinion | Who governs China-EU relations, as Macron visits

Opinion | How China seized the diplomatic initiative in 2023