Opinion | What can China and the world expect if Trump is indicted
By Augustus K. Yeung
INTRODUCTION
"WHAT TO EXPECT IF TRUMP IS INDICTED" is the headline flashing and splashing across America's front-page-news as well as English-language newspapers around the world.
So, the center of entertainment has shifted from Hollywood to Washington after the Chinese "spy" balloon saga. And there may be more thrills-without-bills to cheer up the millions of displaced civilians in war-torn areas around a world that is directed by the United States of America which is hanging on to be the leader of our global village.
One prominent American newspaper reported that Donald Trump has put his supporters on notice he expects to be arrested soon in a hush-money case, issuing a call for protests that has security services bracing for a political circus at best – and violence at worst.
Another leading newspaper said it would see a former US president indicted for the first time ever – even as the 76-year-old Republican campaigns for a second term in the White House.
Although the Manhattan district attorney's office has not confirmed any plans for an indictment, Trump's Saturday announcement was a major tell.
What Else Do Other Leading Newspapers Report
Many other American newspapers indicated there are other signs, too. The porn star known as Stormy Daniels, who claims she was paid to not reveal her affairs with Trump before the 2016 election, has cooperated with the grand jury.
Trump's former fixer Michael Cohen, who has acknowledged making the payment to Daniels and said he was later reimbursed, has also testified before the panel.
Another clear sign is that Trump himself was invited to testify, although he refused, according to the South China Moring Post quoting the Associated Press.
"Prosecutors almost never invite the target of the investigation to testify in the grand jury unless they're planning on indicting that individual," according to Pace University law professor and former prosecutor Bennett Gershman.
An indictment would begin a lengthy process that could last several months, as the case would face a mountain of legal issues and move towards jury selection.
In the immediate term, however, it would trigger several steps, including preparing for exactly how an arrest – or more likely a surrender to authorities – would play out.
"This is really unprecedented, and there is no playbook for this," former long-time US Secret Service agent Robert McDonald, now a criminal justice professor at the University of New Haven, said. He expects a "choreographed" scenario in which the Secret Service would make special arrangements with the district attorney's office for Trump to arrive at the courthouse in a secure fashion that does not make a "spectacle" out of the process.
Former Federal Prosecutor: Trump Would Appear in Court, Be Finger-printed.
Former federal prosecutor Renato Mariotti tweeted that he expected Trump "would appear voluntarily in court, be finger-printed and booked, and would be released on bond".
Given Trump's prominence and his 2024 presidential bid, the judge was not likely to deem him a flight risk and Trump would be free to go after processing, including any bond paid if required.
"My guess is he will not be held overnight," McDonald said.
Shan Wu, a former federal prosecutor now in private practice, agreed, adding that aside from the heavy security, a Trump "self-surrender" was likely to look like any other white-collar case.
But Trump has a flair for the dramatic and some have wondered whether he might refuse to turn himself in, challenging Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's office to arrest him.
"One could imagine Trump wanting to do that for the politics and the optics, to make himself look more sympathetic," Wu said.
Law enforcement agencies were coordinating a major operation in the event he was indicted, including a ratcheting up of security measures, experts said.
But Trump urging supporters to "PROTEST, TAKE OUR NATION BACK!" presents a new wrinkle for authorities, given the violence that erupted on January 6, 2021, when his backers stormed the US Capitol seeking to halt certification of Trump's election defeat.
Pro-Trump groups are already mobilizing. The New York Young Republican Club promoted an event yesterday in lower Manhattan it billed a "peaceful protest of Alvin Bragg's heinous attack" on Trump.
While authorities have given no indication they expect violence near the courthouse, CNN cited unnamed sources saying that law enforcement agencies were addressing the potential for demonstrations, with the risk of clashes. (Source: Associated Press)
CONCLUSION
The police department in Washington, the scene of the US Capitol riot two years ago, said it was "not aware of any" protests in the district related to Trump's possible indictment.
Thousands of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol that day, busting through windows and violently clashing with officers in an ultimately failed effort to stop the congressional certification of Democrat Joe Biden's victory.
Since then, about 1000 participants in the melee have been arrested, many racking up steep legal bills and expressing regret and contrition in court for their actions. Some have complained of feeling abandoned by Trump.
Judging by Trump's past behaviors, he is the kind of person who thinks that he is always right, and that others are there to serve and support him, no matter what.
Simply look at the top White House officials such as Trump's first Secretary of State who had shown signs of despise for his boss, and then the former FBI director who was fired for not breaking the law to protect his boss.
And then there is Mike Pence, the Vice-president who had refused to follow Trump's illegal dictates in the final hours when the votes were counted. Even Pence's security officials feared that Trump was out to physically injure or to get his supporters to harm the vice president in the final hours of their stay at the White House, America's corridor of power.
How a "leader", a common-criminal suspect and a tax-evading "business" man like Trump ever got democratically elected remains America's tragedy.
China, too, suffers.
The author is a freelance writer; formerly Adjunct Lecturer, taught MBA Philosophy of Management, and International Strategy, and online columnist of 3-D Corner (HKU SPACE), University of Hong Kong.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Augustus K. Yeung:
Opinion | NATO chief is exploiting Asian weak links and sabotaging Asia's millennium
Comment