Opinion | Philippines is sleepwalking into the US-led trilateral trap
By Augustus K. Yeung
INTRODUCTION
Now that the Philippines has signed an agreement with Japan, plus the fact that the Philippines has earlier signed one with the U.S, this means that the Philippines is armed to the teeth. But does that new situation make the Philippines militarily stronger and financially secure?
Philippines' agreements with Japan (which has its eyes set on safeguarding the island Senkaku, or Diaoyu Islands, claimed by China), is reportedly motivated by "disaster relief"; however, it could be sleep-walking into military traps designed by Washington and Japan to sandwich the Philippines into a sugar-coated trilateral pact.
From Tokyo's perspective, the Philippines is making a deal that would secure the country's territorial rights and fishing grounds in the event of conflict with China.
The reader can first study the following excerpt from a newspaper article, and then analyze if these deals are in the best of the Philippines.
"As the Philippines seeks to deepen its security cooperation with Japan days after granting the US greater access to its military facilities, some observers say a trilateral security alliance would be a logical step amid concerns over China's growing power in the region," reported the SCMP.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr. and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida signed a proposed agreement in Tokyo on Sunday that would permit the two nations' armed forces to cooperate on disaster relief, a measure widely seen as a steppingstone towards a pact that will allow the deployment of military units on each other's territory.
The move came as Marcos earlier this month granted US forces greater access to Philippines military facilities – a decision that China was quick to criticize on the grounds it undermined regional stability and raised tensions.
In anticipation of more criticism from Beijing, Marcos was keen to underline that his government would be cautious in pushing ahead with any new security arrangement with Tokyo, "because we do not want to appear provocative". How naïve?
With tensions in the region increasing, notably over the future of Taiwan, experts said Japan was likely to want to forge closer ties between the two nations' militaries sooner rather than later.
"In many ways, the Philippines is the perfect alley for Japan as Manila is facing many of the same challenges from Beijing as Tokyo is," said Yakov Zinberg, a professor of international relations at Tokyo's Kokushikan University.
"Both nations are locked into territorial disputes with China – the Philippines over some of the atolls in the South China Sea and Japan over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea – and that in many ways bring them together," he said.
Expanding ties in the region is also important for Tokyo and Washington, and the idea of a trilateral security alliance that includes the US "makes complete sense". Zinberg said it might also form the basis for an expanded arrangement that brings in other nations with concerns about the growing power of China.
Stephen Nagy, an associate professor of international relations at Tokyo's International Christian University, said the key consideration for both governments was Taiwan.
"A military partnership with the Philippines will enable it to serve as a base for power projection and deterrence against a third country," Nagy said. "Manila has already signed a pact with the US to that effect and another agreement with Tokyo will serve to make this a trilateral agreement."
The Philippines played a very important geopolitical role in the South China Sea, regional sea lanes and, critically, in the security of Taiwan, he said.
"Manila is concerned about a contingency involving Taiwan and the impact that any conflict would have on sea lanes, but also the impact on the wider region if China is successful in an attack on Taiwan." Nagy added. (Source: SCMP)
While Marcos has stated his policy is to be "a friend of everyone, an enemy of none", that position may become harder to sustain. One must seriously consider China's goals and plans for Asia-Pacific.
CONCLUSION
These observers or experts couldn't be more wrong as they are one-sidedly viewing the Philippines' realties from Tokyo's "save-the-island-Senkaku" perspective.
Whereas the Philippines, being a member state of ASEAN, is in a trade bloc, which China regards as friends and trading partners. The Philippines is to be given special favors such as fishing rights, allowing its fishmen the luxury of fishing in disputed districts.
In addition, China is prepared to make further concessions by sharing oil revenues in the event of oil exploration and extraction in the oil-rich South China Sea.
Furthermore, China is prepared to help lift the Philippines out of poverty and institutional corruption: President Xi Jinping has also pledged to employ English-speaking Filipinos to teach the subject in China, and to flush the Philippines with China's army of tourists who would bring cash and consumption to the archipelago.
With its experience and success in taming institutional corruption, for example, China can significantly help the Philippines to resuscitate its hopeless nature of corruption back to health.
In China's grand plan, the ASEAN for various reasons is a region in which China feels comfortable and at home. Certainly, the Hua Chiao or the overseas Chinese play a significant part in China's analysis.
Historically, this special social category has had a history of aiding and abating China in its war against Japanese imperialism during the eight-year long ordeal.
From the Chinese perspective, therefore, the Philippines is in for a loss – if it "sleep-walks" into the bosom of the United States, which has long ended its colonial relationship with the Philippines. But now, the US is using it as an instrument in its political tussle with China.
Regardless of whatever action China takes with Taiwan, the Asia-Pacific will always be safe from war as China's goal is an Asian millennium, not domination, or US-style hegemony.
For Marcos's advice: His naïve policy of "being friends to all, and enemy of none" will never work – as China will not trust such "a-snake-with-two-heads". Recalibrate!
The author is a freelance writer; formerly Adjunct Lecturer, taught MBA Philosophy of Management, and International Strategy, and online columnist of 3-D Corner (HKU SPACE), University of Hong Kong.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Augustus K. Yeung:
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