Opinion | Blinken Visit and the Alleged Spy Balloon
By Augustus K. Yeung
INTRODUCTION
That the Blinken visit to Beijing was the common verdict eagerly expected by former US diplomats, and here blessed by two Western scholars for various reasons, although they argued from different perspectives.
“The visit to China by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken – the first by a top US diplomat in five years – comes at a critical point as US-China relations stand at the precipice of long-term enmity. Blinken’s trip could prevent this by putting the relationship on a more stable and sustainable path. Importantly, he walks into these meetings at a moment of unique leverage to do so.” Said Bates Gill and Evan S. Medeiros.
With the “unique leverage”, Blinken can offer a vision for the relationship, gain meaningful cooperation on US priorities and open channels of dialogue. Without this leverage-propelled progress, the relationship will veer into unbridled competition that raises the risk of accidents and even conflict.
All minds think alike that now is the time to do so. China is more open to working with the United States than at any point in the last several years.
Bang! Comes the issue of “alleged spy balloon”, which has surprisingly torpedoed this window of opportunity; and the visit is now cancelled, clearly showing the flimsy and fragile nature of US-China relationships.
A Perspective from Washington (according to Bates Gills and Evan S. Medeiros, executive director and senior fellow, Asia Society Policy Institute’s Centre for China Analysis respectively.)
“Beijing faces serious challenges abroad and at home in ways that make it receptive to putting US-China relations on a more stable footing. Blinken’s challenge is to maximize this window of opportunity.”
“Externally, China’s relationship with the US, Europe and developed Asia has become highly stressed. China faces criticism and creeping isolation from all sides…”
The calendar of multilateral meetings this year presents China with the challenge of being further criticized and isolated.
In 2023, the Group of Seven and Group of 20 summits are being hosted by US partners, while the US will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in November. Xi faces a decision about whether to come to San Francisco for Apec, creating an additional incentive to stabilize relations.
On the home front, the Chinese economy was hit by Covid-19 lockdowns that sparked an eruption of public protests across China in November. These and other disruptions have chastened many foreign investors who are moving their export-oriented production out of China…
“A nascent foreign policy charm offensive is also in the works, including the friendly welcome Blinken is likely to receive in Beijing. Under these conditions, Beijing needs and wants to stabilize relations with the US, which is a source of leverage for Washington.” Said Gill and Medeiros.
What Should Blinken Do?
Here is what Blinken should do. First and foremost, he should offer a vision for US-China relations premised on two goals: meaningful cooperation on issues such as Ukraine and North Korea and a resumption of dialogue on economic relations and risk reduction…”
Specifically, Blinken should push for reopening regularizes consultations on the US-China trade and investment relationship. In 2021, good trade between the US and China nearly exceeded US$700 billion, and 2022 might have been bigger. This is perhaps the most common of interests but also one that faces challenges which need managing.
“Washington should push for better channels between diplomats and military officials on risk management in the relationship. The probability of an accident or miscalculation is rising as the two militaries come into greater contact with each other.”
“This needs to be among Blinken’s top priorities. During the Cold War, Washington and Moscow only agreed to such steps after the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. Washington and Beijing should avoid the same fate.” The team suggested.
“Calls for Dialogue Need to be Matched with Negotiation…”
“To be sure, calls for dialogue need to be matched with negotiations on practical and tangible cooperation on the greatest challenges in the relationship. These include working on issues such as Chinese aid to Russia, North Korea’s nuclear programme…”
“Progress in other areas important to Washington – such as ratcheting down China’s coercive actions towards Taiwan and seeing improvement in Beijing’ human rights record – is unlikely. Instead, Blinken should not hesitate to affirm US policy that it does not seek conflict with China or want to change its system of government.
“In return, Beijing will need to likewise concede that it respects and does not seek to displace US presence and interests as an Indo-Pacific power.
Some of these outcomes will help stabilize US-China ties, but they will not resolve the deep-seated and increasingly contentious difference which define this relationship. Rather, the two sides still face a long period of intense competition across many domains.
“Washington should pursue small steps that can alleviate tensions, especially when it can negotiate from a position of strength. This visit comes at the right moment to do so.” (Source: SCMP)
CONCLUSION
Some of the advice make sense. But who would have anticipated that an accidental incident of a harmless but intruding meteoric balloon could drifted freely to become an international political issue?
Naturally, the focus of attention turned from Blinken visit to the alleged spy balloon, which was too simple to be crowned as a world event that drew fire from the White House and the US military, which eventually obeyed the president’s order to shoot it down.
The time for a cordial top-level visit that leads to a process of dialogues and negotiations may be right, but for the unexpected balloon issue, and the all-important planned visit is now stalled.
However, the downing of the alleged spy balloon may have enhanced Biden’s soft power as he has presidentially ordered it to be shot down, thereby cheering up Washington’s China-bashers.
Certainly, Blinken “can negotiate from a position of strength,” but the top US official would have to wait until the political weather in Washington becomes permitting.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Augustus K. Yeung:
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