Opinion | Why all the fuss over China's population

By Tom Fowdy

Yesterday China's first population decline since 1961 was announced, with the total number of people in the country shrinking by 850,000 since the previous year. The cause of the decline, which also coincides with a drop in fertility, is a product of a myriad of factors, including of course the legacy one of the one child policy, rising costs of living and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

As a result, it is anticipated that India, with a much younger population, will overtake China as the world's most populous country this year. Not surprisingly, China's announcement was met with the usual wave of negativity from the western media who used it to spin a narrative that the country's economic prospects look bleak and it faces only "decline" from hereafter.

There are several points to be made about this. First of all, China's fertility rate, despite extraordinary circumstances such as the One China Policy, is not out of synchronization with a wider regional trend. All wealthier countries in East Asia are experiencing low fertility rates and population decline. This is most explicit with Japan, where having only 1.34 births per woman, the population is expected to shrink from 125 million presently to 86.4 million by 2064. In South Korea, the situation is even worse, where fertility is 0.84 births per woman which is the lowest in the world, with decline also on the cards.

The overriding theme is, in East Asia, where living costs are expensive, where parental culture involves investing significantly in a child's future (through tutoring and education) and where working hours are long, people are disincentivized by the economic structure to have children, resulting in aging populations. China is no exemption to this rule. That's why decisions such as lifting the One Child Policy have not made a difference, because the problem is structural and a product of how the country's rapid development has changed the way people live.

Of course, that does not mean there are no complications of such. Western commentators argue that an aging and shrinking population serves to reduce the country's labour force which of course will reduce the country's competitiveness as a manufacturing hub over time, especially in contrast to countries such as India which have a younger and of course cheaper, work force. This will also put a greater strain on the government to invest in social services and care for its growing elderly population. Although in terms of China's development as a consumer economy, this is not likely to have a detrimental impact.

But the question is, can China overcome this situation, if ever? First of all, measures to increase fertility are not going to work unless the overlying economic structure and incentivization changes. Can parents afford to send two children through university? To pay double the amount of private tutoring and extracurricular activities? Let alone food, clothes and other necessities? The reality is that the neoliberal economic system as led by the west penalizes large families. Every western country faces this dilemma, and likewise the fertility rate of every country shrinks as it develops further.

However, these woes in the west are masked by one factor, that is their populations continue to grow through the inbound immigration. Amongst the established "white" population in the United States, for example, fertility has also shrunk significantly. But will the population of the US shrink? Of course, not why? Because America is a country which thrives on immigration. Therein is your answer and solution. But the next question is will China be prepared to accept such a social change for the greater good? Although people will of course argue nobody will want to migrate to China, citing largely ideological arguments, this is patently untrue.

People at large do not migrate for ideological reasons (this is an American narrative), they migrate for economic opportunity, and it is undeniable that China has plenty of that and still constitutes a "step up" for people from many of the world's poorer countries. But secondly, moving away from migration based arguments, the second solution to a labour shortfall is of course the rise of automation, and here in this area China is very competitive. If China can increasingly automate its workforce and production capacity, a shrink in population will not matter all that much.

Given this, while demographic change is inevitable, there are many ways available for the Chinese state to mitigate or adapt to the impact of this development. The western media are determined to shape a narrative of Chinese failure, but it remains true that unless the economic system in its entirety is reformed, people are simply not going to have more children and it is unrealistic and unfair to expect them to do so, it's a trend being mirrored all around the world. But that does not mean there are not other options at hand.

The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

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