Opinion | No Cold War? Don't bet on a Biden who can't be taken at his word
By Tom Fowdy
Yesterday Chinese leader Xi Jinping met with US President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali. It was the first in-person meeting between the two leaders, with previous engagements having only been by video or telephone. On having spoken with Xi, Biden struck a noticeably calmer tone than what has been usual for US rhetoric regarding China, saying: "I absolutely believe there need not be a new Cold War. I have met many times with Xi Jinping and we were candid and clear with one another across the board."
Yet, actions speak louder than words. The meeting came amidst a dramatic escalation of tensions between the US and China, particularly for that note on the question of Taiwan. Only weeks ago did Secretary of State Antony Blinken state his belief that China had "shortened" the timeline of using force over Taiwan. Likewise, the last few months can only be defined by Nancy Pelosi's highly provocative trip to the island and growing US sanctions against Beijing in the form of technology embargos. Given the further geopolitical ramifications brought about by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, most had decided such a new Cold War was in fact already here.
However, there is one big event of significance producing the shift in tone from Washington. The mid-term elections are now over, and to everyone's surprise, the Biden administration has emerged stronger and more comfortable, with the democrats having thwarted expectations of a so-called "Red Wave" Republicans predicted and secured control of the Senate. Although the GOP have seemingly narrowly clinched the House, their gains were so underwhelming, dogged by the toxicity of the Trumpian brand and a voter backlash over abortion, Biden was able to pitch it a victory for himself. Thus, with the elections over, he has renewed breathing space not to appear "hawkish" on China and at least temporarily, de-escalate things.
But in the biggest picture, this summit doesn't mean a lot. Firstly, Biden has a track record of repeatedly saying one thing, doing another and coming out with so many provocative "gaffes" it becomes difficult to discern what his position actually is. The President committed to effective war against China numerous times over Taiwan over the course of the year, yet the White House walked it back. Likewise, these kinds of "dialogues" between the Biden administration and China are not a new thing and have often preceded or coincided with deliberate efforts by the US to ramp up tensions. They may help prevent worse-case scenarios, but what they do not tell us is anything about what the US is truly intending regarding China.
In which case, we have to look at the substance of this given meeting, and it goes without saying that while there are a few words exchanged, there are no practical results or outcomes. Does it change the fundamental status quo or trajectory of US-China relations? Has the US changed its intentions regarding decoupling? Were any sanctions lifted or deals made? Likewise, although Biden has publicly signaled an aversion to war regarding Taiwan, does it fundamentally change the US's policy of subtly changing the status quo in the region to encourage containment of China and rope allies into taking its position, like what has been done with Ukraine?
The meeting accounted for none of that, and words do not change these structural realities. In which case, the US's biggest foreign policy goal and priority remains the steadfast effort to try and contain the rise of China through the usage of all media, diplomatic, political, military, economic and technological efforts. History shows that while the US may tone up or tone down its rhetoric with respect to domestic political cycles (as did the previous administration) and deliberately ignite politicized drama at opportune moments (as per Pelosi's Taiwan visit) the policy and strategic goals remain fundamentally the same, be it loud or quiet.
And given such, there is no legitimate reason for China to trust the US or to take them at their word. It has been textbook of the Biden Presidency to say they want "guardrails" and "red lines" established with respect to China on one hand, and to continue to engage in highly provocative and confrontational behavior on the other. There is otherwise no expressed willingness of the US to seek co-existence with a rising China. What Biden thus truly means is that he does not seek "conflict" or "confrontation" now. The US will be quiet for a while, until the next time it seeks to deliberately ramp up tensions and scapegoat China again for its own gain, and then yet again we'll be back to square. So no Cold War? Don't count on it yet.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:
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