By Tom Fowdy
Yesterday, Rishi Sunak became leader of the Conservative Party by default after his only opponent, Penny Mordaunt, withdrew, with Boris Johnson also having decided it was a bad idea to push for leadership again. Rishi thus becomes Britain's 4th Prime Minister since 2019 and the first non-white person to hold the office, replacing Liz Truss after her mere 45-day reign amounted to a total disaster. Rishi had of course, been her challenger in the previous leadership election, but not surprisingly the Conservative Party's membership demographic was not keen on someone of Indian origin. Yet, here we are, in arguably what has been one of the most astonishing political twists of modern times.
Sunak, however, has been appointed captain of a sinking ship. The question is to what extent can he salvage it? The news of his victory yesterday overshadowed reports that the British economy has already entered recession, and things are not good. Inflation is surging at the highest level in decades, incomes are shrinking, energy prices are sky-high and the value of the pound has taken considerable damage. The rot in the British economy is a long-set one, which has never truly recovered from the 2008 global financial crisis in real terms, let alone the COVID-19 pandemic.
To Rishi's credit, he has a background in economics, having been an investment banker with Goldman Sachs. On paper, he is a much more moderate Conservative than the likes of Truss and does not have the same fanatical pedigree. It is the expectation of some that he may act as a stabilizing force and is not likely to make reckless decisions. That, however, does not mean he is a miracle maker, and nor does it necessarily mean that he has the political will, vision, and determination to change the UK's economic fortunes, and even if he could, would it be for the better?
Sunak is not a radical in any sense. He's an incredibly wealthy liberal Conservative who now must take the reigns of an increasingly right-wing, and bitterly divided political party, which is very quick to turn on its leadership. Throughout his unsuccessful previous leadership campaign, we've seen his effort to try and pander to this sentiment. Sunak tried to depict himself as being extremely hawkish on China, despite having known when he was chancellor, that deeper economic ties with Beijing, were critically important. How this will play out is not yet clear, given there is a sense of "non-continuity" with his previous campaign as he no longer leads party votes.
There will be several early tests to determine how Sunak will handle the UK-China relationship, and if he will navigate away from the planned path of confrontation Liz Truss had set out. First, will he keep Truss's planned designation of China as an official "threat" to the UK in the upcoming strategic defense review? Secondly, will he proceed to veto the Chinese takeover of the Newport Wafer Fab Semiconductor plant? This plant was earmarked for a "national security review" following pressure from the United States, pushed by Kwasi Kwarteng when he was business secretary under Boris Johnson (another NeoConservative) but there has been some government division about it, hence it was initially approved in 2021.
The next test of course, is who will Sunak appoint to his cabinet? This will be very telling of the agenda he has in store. Will he appoint people in his fellow faction, or Conservative hardliners? We should pay attention to any continuity from that of Liz Truss, to who becomes Foreign Secretary, to whether he discards China-hawks such as Tom Tugenhadt, and so on. This will allow us to see if Sunak is intent on imposing his own vision from scratch, or merely carrying on the legacy of Liz Truss and Boris Johnson.
However, we must also remind ourselves that on a domestic level, Sunak is inheriting a government that is at an all-time bottom in terms of popularity. He must make his case to the British public in order to claw back support and make a firm link from the "incompetence" after the past, characterized by scandal and mismanagement. While the economy is of course the ultimate priority, this also means the new government will be looking for other opportunities to win over popular sentiment. In this case, the probability of Sunak pursuing populist politics is high, and China is an incredibly easy target. But otherwise, on a long-term basis it seems unlucky that he has what it takes to solve Britain's fundamental problems. If we're hoping he will change the economic decline exacerbated by growing income inequality and a system that doesn't work for ordinary people, the answer is and always will be, no. Sunak is a new face, a fresh face, a vibrant and young leader representing a modern Britain, but none of that means he won't be offering more of the same, and what else might you expect from someone so wealthy and privileged as himself?
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
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