Opinion | A nuclear North Korea is here to stay
By Tom Fowdy
Early on Thursday morning the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), or "North Korea", launched two additional short-range ballistic missiles into the East Sea. The new test came just days after Pyongyang launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) over 4500km into the Pacific Ocean, bypassing Japan. The country's national news agency KCNA announced that the new tests were a retaliation for a series of counter-military exercises held by the US, South Korea and also Japan, of which saw the Aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan visit, and Seoul test ballistic missiles of their own, one of which blew up on in an accident on launching.
The latest move is a tit-for-tat by Pyongyang, but as such, it is also slipping into a cycle of escalation whereby both parties flex their military might in order to display discontent against the other. The burst of tests emerged precisely after U.S Vice President Kamala Harris visited South Korea, attended the Demilitarized zone border with North Korea (DMZ) and make firm remarks against Pyongyang. Seeing that they had got the US's attention again, Kim Jong-un has pursued a new path of launches that demonstrate the state's growing capabilities. Whilst North Korea already has ICBMs in theory that can reach the United States, this week's IRBM test was nonetheless the longest range demonstrated in practice by any North Korean missile.
The United States continues, as it does across every foreign policy field, to stick to a highly arbitrary and completely uncompromising position when it comes to North Korea. That is, to demand the complete denuclearization of the country as a prerequisite to any normalization or sanctions relief. This absolutist line was what sunk negotiations between the DPRK and the Donald Trump administration, who held two in-person summits with the North Korean leader, the latter of which the President walked out on upon receiving advice from then national security advisor John Bolton not to compromise. This led to the collapse of dialogue between the two parties, with the Biden administration shifting back to the Obama-era position that Kim Jong-un should not be engaged.
But on Washington's behalf, this is a massive strategic miscalculation that in their own hubris, overlooks the reality that their leverage over North Korea is not what it used to be. Pyongyang now deems that time is on its side. The world has changed. The 2017 scenario whereby Donald Trump was able to persuade both China and Russia to impose punishing sanctions on the DPRK no longer exists. After believing the North Korean issue was "resolved", Trump shifted the mantle of foreign policy priority to geopolitical competition, transforming China into a strategic adversary of the US, something Biden embraced wholeheartedly. Then, in addition, Russia of course invaded Ukraine, irreversibly changing the international outlook.
As a result of this new environment, history has to some extent repeated itself as both countries perceive the DPRK as a strategic asset and counterweight against the United States itself, and in turn both have adopted the position that because the US undermined dialogue with the DPRK over denuclearization, new sanctions on the country over additional tests are simply unacceptable. They no longer see any strategic benefit in placing pressure on North Korea to suit American strategic interests. Hence, earlier this year the United States proposed a new sanctions resolution at the United Nations Security Council, and for the first time, it was vetoed by both China and Russia.
In addition to that, given the scale of sanctions Russia itself is facing from the United States, Moscow has shifted to a position that simply involves flouting existing measures altogether. In exchange for DPRK support in officially recognizing newly annexed territories as Russian (and previously the independence of the DPR and LPR states), Moscow has been hiring growing numbers of laborers from North Korea. Upon receiving all this renewed support, which it didn't have just half a decade ago, Kim Jong-un now sees a window of opportunity to gradually increase the DPRK's own capabilities and negotiating hand whilst receiving no repercussions for it whatsoever. This means that time is on Pyongyang's side in attaining its goal of becoming a fully-fledged nuclear power.
All this demonstrates that America's zero-sum policy of attempting to strangle the country into capitulation has been a failure, and in doing so the Biden administration shows no creativity, originality or direction in its foreign policy. But it also could stem from the calculation on America's behalf that the status quo, as opposed to peace, is in fact truly preferable, particularly as it enables the continued militarization of the region under the guise of "opposing North Korea" in the view of course, to containing China. But that's very much what Kim Jong-un wants and will, in turn, allow his regime to survive. Because if there is peace, if there is normalization, where else does he go? A nuclear North Korea is thus very much here to stay.
The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Tom Fowdy:
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