Opinion | As China rises, so are the emerging ASEAN nations
By Augustus K. Yeung
Introduction
China has become the target, the rival and the one to bash until the Russo-Ukraine conflict flared up. As U.S. President Joe Biden says in Poland, the conflict is not going away in weeks, or months, so the ASEAN region can settle down to trade, build and consolidate. And to build peace--while American-led expansive sanctions against Russia throw the world into chaos economically and financially.
In the article below, readers will see Chris Humphrey, executive director of the EU-ASEAN Business Council, presenting his thinly veiled critical look at the role China is playing in the region.
"The ten-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc, with over 650 million people and set to become the fourth largest global economy by 2030, should stop selling itself short as a junior partner in ties with China," reports Kok Xinghui for the Post. ("Powerful bloc warned not to sell itself short". South China Morning Post. Thursday, March 24, 2022)
How a CSP with China Could Impact the ASEAN Region
That was among key themes touched on by economic and trade experts on the first day of the South China Morning Post "China Conference: Southeast Asia".
Chris Humphrey said the bloc had tended to view itself as a "younger, weaker brother" in its relationships with other nations, but it should not do so given its economic heft.
"I think ASEAN always tends to view itself as more of the taker rather than the giver in many of these relationships, but it has an awful lot to offer, a lot to offer China as well," Humphrey said, pointing to how ASEAN as a region was currently the world's fifth largest economy and home to the world's third largest workforce.
Humphrey was part of an online panel discussing how a "comprehensive strategic partnership" with China could impact the ASEAN region.
He spoke alongside Trinh Nguyen, senior economist of emerging Asia at Natxis, and Wang Huiyao, founder and president of the Centre for China and Globalisation.
Last November, ASEAN nations and China upgraded their ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership (CSP), signaling increased cooperation in a range of sectors, including greater priority in foreign affairs, security and defence, and economic policymaking.
While Humphrey said the CSP was "not a bad thing" for ASEAN, he questioned if it represented additional value beyond ASEAN's present relationship with China.
He also disagreed with Wang about the benefits that closer ties with China brought to the region.
China is Building Railways to Laos, Thailand and Indonesia
Wang had outlined the trade and economic benefits, as well as the infrastructure help that China gave to the region. "China is building this fantastic railway connected to Laos and then they're building another one in Thailand and then Indonesia," Wang said.
The project in Thailand will be its first high-speed rail line; the Laos one will cost US$6 billion; and the one in Indonesia will stretch for 142km, connecting capital Jakarta to the city of Bandung in West Java.
Humphrey, however, said China was not undertaking the projects out of "benevolence" and the costs would have to be repaid at some point.
Meanwhile, the primary and secondary contracts for construction work tended to go to Chinese companies and use Chinese labor, he said. "So it's not as if all the benefits flow to the countries that are receiving the benefit."
Nguyen said there was a need for ASEAN countries to innovate from China's rise and not just rely on the growing trade or relationship with China…
"China does what it needs to do and ASEAN needs to do what it needs to do. I think the key here is that if China has been strategic, ASEAN countries need to be strategic," she said.
Two Multilateral Trade Pacts that Heavily Involved ASEAN Economies
In a separate session, trade experts discussed the Reginal Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) – two multilateral trade pacts that heavily involved ASEAN economies.
The RCEP – currently the world's largest trade pact – is an ASEAN project involving some of the bloc's biggest trading partners including China and Japan.
The CPTPP includes four ASEAN countries: Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei and Vietnam.
China last September formally applied to join the CPTPP.
Speaking in the panel on these agreements were Irina Fan, director of research at the Hong Kong Trade Development Council; Eunice Huang, head of APAC trade policy at Google; and Simon Tay, chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.
RCEP as a Bridge Between China and Other Countries
Huang said it was simplistic to view RCEP as China-led, versus CPTPP as a US-led agreement. She said ASEAN was in the driver's seat for RCEP and was responsible for pushing it forward. The value of these agreements, she said, was that they streamlined previous free-trade deals.
Fan said RCEP was a "bridge" between China and other signatory countries, allowing Chinese companies to invest in, trade with and engage with Asian markets.
RCEP created a "common market" for both the supply and the consumption sides, Tay said. He said RCEP came at an "important juncture" for China, just as it was investing in the region and looking to pull supply chains together…
"In the conference's keynote address earlier yesterday, Singapore's Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said it was crucial for major powers to forge a new "modus vivendi" or way to get along, amid tectonic geopolitical shifts that were entrenching a multipolar world…" reports Kok Xinghui. ("Powerful bloc warned not to sell itself short". South China Morning Post. Thursday, March 24, 2022).
Conclusion
While China-U.S. trade rivalry and political bickering are expected to continue in this region, they also contribute to a large proportion of world GDP as other players such as ASEAN are emerging.
Amid the tense Russo-Ukrainian conflict in Eastern Europe, happily the ASEAN region is poised to become the world's fourth-largest economy by 2030.
As the U.S. and its European allies are choosing to be confrontational, as exemplified here by Chris Humphrey, China is quietly and positively building infrastructures and peace in the ASEAN region.
The author is a freelance writer; formerly Adjunct Lecturer, taught MBA Philosophy of Management, and International Strategy, and online columnist of 3-D Corner (HKU SPACE), University of Hong Kong.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.
Read more articles by Augustus K. Yeung:
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