Opinion | China may turn dispute with Lithuania into political clout

By Augustus K. Yeung

Introduction

This year France takes charge as the chair of the EU bloc. Knowing the French President Emmanuel Macron's personality as a visionary leader and his latest unpleasant experience with the US and Australia over the loss of its billions-dollar submarine deal, France is expected to lead the bloc and make EU a force to be reckoned with.

Much like De Gaul, a proud Frenchman, Macron will no longer be easily led by the United States—a declining world power—at least within the year of Macron's EU presidency.

Politics is dynamic and economics can be a clout: France is gaining weight; so is China's economic influence in Europe.

EU Foreign Policy Chief Pledged "Solidarity" with Lithuania

"The European Union's top diplomats hope to de-escalate Lithuania's dispute with China as they also seek to secure a summit meeting with Beijing before the end of March," reports Finbarr Bermingham for the Post. ("EU walks tightrope over feud between Lithuania, China". South China Morning Post. January 16, 2022)

Following a two-day session of the bloc's 27 foreign ministers in the French port city of Brest, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said that members stood in "solidarity" with Lithuania—even if no new support measures were forthcoming.

"Some things are going well, some less well," he said of the EU-China relationship, adding that members "expressed clear solidarity with Lithuania and discussed how we could actively press on with de-escalation".

There'll be an EU-China Summit in March

"Borrell added that an EU-China summit in March would give him "the opportunity to travel to China to prepare.

"It will also be an important summit to review where we are in our relations with China," he said.

Lithuania has been embroiled in a months-long dispute with mainland China over its decision to allow a diplomatic centre named the Taiwanese Representative Office; typically, such de facto embassies for the self-governed island are known as Taipei Representative Offices.

As a result, Lithuania was apparently targeted for a sweeping economic coercion campaign by China, and the EU announced it would gather evidence for a case before the World Trade Organization.

Despite repeated calls by Lithuania's Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis for further concrete actions by the EU, though, there were no new measures announced on Friday.

The EU Block will Stick with two Existing Plans

But with few short-term fixes available, it looks like the bloc will stick with two existing plans.

The first, the potential WTO case, could take years to unfold. And since the WTO's appeals functions has expired, any case may never be fully resolved.

The second is an anti-coercion instrument, a legislative tool now in draft form that would permit Brussels to strike back at economic bullying.

This too could take months, if not years, in navigating a bureaucratically dense passage to becoming law.

Standing next to Borrell, France's Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told reporters that his government would try to accelerate the measure's passage.

France Criticizes the Coercion by China

"We criticize the coercion by China. There is an anti-coercion system on the table and part of our response under the French presidency will be to speed up the text so that coercive measures by China in relation to Lithuania cease," Le Drian said.

Last Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron's diplomatic adviser, Emmanuel Bonne, met in Wuxi with Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Vice-Premier Liu He and Vice-President Wang Qishan also held video conferences with Bonne--in an effort to curry favour with France as it assumes the reins of the EU presidency.

Lithuania Uses the Washington Post to Press EU

Beijing's evident coercion campaign has frozen Lithuanian exporters out of the lucrative Chinese market. Companies from other EU countries including Germany and Sweden have also faced an unofficial embargo because their products contained Lithuanian-made parts.

In an interview with The Washington Post published before the second day of talks in Brest, Landsbergis reiterated a call for EU support.

"There's only so much pressure we can take. But if we stand in solidarity, if we give a very clear response that such coercion is not just against one country in the union that China tends not to like, but it's more an incursion on the single market, then we send a signal that this is against European rules," Landsbergis said.

"In capitals around Europe, though, there seems to be little appetite for a trade war with China. Yet there is also concern that yielding to Beijing would embolden similar behaviour in the future," reports Finbarr Bermingham for the Post. ("EU walks tightrope over feud between Lithuania, China". South China Morning Post. Sunday, January 16, 2022)

Conclusion

France's turn to assume the presidency bestows on the French president the power to perform. Lithuania's feud with China is one area he is expected to capitalize on--within this year, much to the triumph of France under President Emmanuel Macron—who sees a good chance to outshine the waning Washington:

First, the EU's top diplomats "hope to de-escalate" Lithuania's dispute with China as they seek to secure a summit meeting with Beijing before the end of March.

Second, China does not really want to hurt Lithuania. Beijing's wrath is more of a gesture, warning other counties that when it comes to Taiwan and China's sovereignty, Beijing means business.

Third, by now Lithuania must have learned the lesson the hard way for it has enlisted The Washington Post for an "interview" which was meant to subtly put pressure on the EU bloc, arguing that by economically censoring Lithuania—a member state of EU—China is breaking the bloc's "rules" of unity.

Therefore, Lithuania's dispute with China can be expected to be resolved—within this year, much to the mood-enhancing and political fortune-forming of President Emmanuel Macron.

Faced with an unrelenting Washington, Beijing and Paris will prove to be more mutually accommodating.

The author is a freelance writer; formerly Adjunct Lecturer, taught MBA Philosophy of Management, and International Strategy, and online columnist of 3-D Corner (HKU SPACE), University of Hong Kong.

 

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

Read more articles by Augustus K. Yeung:

Opinion | Many multinational corporations understand China better than Western politicians

Opinion | UN rights chief to visit Xinjiang after Olympics

Opinion | US stance in East Asia Jars: In a region invested in peace and prosperity