Opinion | The Chinese COVID-19 response: Data has proven its success

By Alan Leung, Blogger specialized in current affairs

Recently, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) completed the first national COVID-19 seroepidemiology study and the result indicated about 4.43% of Wuhan residents had antibodies for the virus. A seroepidemiology study is a large-scale systematic blood collection and testing for antibodies and/or other biological markers for a more accurate estimation of the population infection rate.

The CCDC collected blood samples from 34,000 people in the community for the study, which covered three areas, including the epicenter of Wuhan where 11,000 samples were collected in mid-April, the surrounding Hubei province, and six provinces outside of Hubei which consisted of Beijing, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Sichuan. The result in Hubei province was only about 0.44%, whereas among more than 12,000 samples tested from the other six provinces there were only two positives.

Nonetheless, we should be cautious towards the CCDC Wuhan's result as it could be an over-estimation depending on the difference in areas and ages groups the blood samples were taken may affect the results because in another similar study that focused on Wuhan conducted by a separate group of scientists with a slightly larger sampling published in the journal Nature Medicine in June, found that only 3.2 to 3.8% of 17,000 people tested in Wuhan had previously been infected with the coronavirus.

According to these studies, the total number of infections in Wuhan is estimated to be about four to five hundred thousand people, which is around 8 to 10 times the number of official confirmed cases recorded by mid-April. However, we shouldn't be surprised that a large proportion of the cases were missed and these results don't mean there was a cover-up, similar studies around the world have found big gaps between the number of confirmed cases and community prevalence.

Preliminary data in New York had shown about 21% of New York City residents had antibodies in their blood, compared to 13.9% of the population in New York state (about 2.7 million people). Whereas a CDC's study in October found that about 10% of the blood samples they collected across the US contained the virus antibodies but a similar Stanford University study found only 9.3 of the US population had been infected with the virus at some point.

In the UK, the Office for National Statistics published a study in early December which estimated around 12.7% of London residents and 8.7% of the population in England are expected to have the virus antibodies in their blood, while other parts of the UK had lower infection estimation; Scotland 7.5%, Wales 5.5% and Northern Ireland 3.3%. However, the percentage of people tested positive in London has continued to rise sharply ever since the new virus variant emerged, so the numbers should be even higher now.

Results from other European countries varied between 2 to 10 percent and France clearly championed the crown. A study released by the l'Institut Pasteur research center in December expected about 10% of people in France already have developed antibodies and the numbers in Paris could be as high as 26.7%. Whereas, Swedish Public Health Agency research claims only 6.1% of the Swedish population has antibodies, despite having one of Europe's highest death rates relative to population size.

Surprisingly Italy has one of Europe's lowest ratings, in spite of being one of the most hard-hit countries during the early stage of the pandemic. According to studies conducted by the Italian Ministry of Health only 2.5% (1.482 million people) of the entire population of Italy are believed to have antibodies in their blood. However, the numbers in the northern region were much higher, Lombardy (7.5%) was three times the national average and in the worst affected province of Bergamo, the rate was as high as 24%.

In Asia, the infection rate in more developed regions was generally lower, a study conducted by the KCDA in July indicated only 0.03% of the population in South Korea had developed antibodies. Japanese health ministry antibodies studies in the same time period have shown infection rates in Japan ranged from 0.17% in Osaka and 0.1% in Tokyo to 0.03% in Miyagi. Similar studies conducted by the Taipei Veterans General Hospital have shown an estimated 0.05% of adults in Taiwan have COVID-19 antibodies.

However, infections in other parts of Asia are expected to be relatively higher but data has been scarce, especially in less developed regions. In Indonesia, which ranked among the world's worst in COVID-19 testing rate, an epidemiological study has found that the real number of COVID-19 cases among the population in Tangerang, a city of two million on the outskirts of Jakarta, might be about 50 times higher than the official figures as the study concluded about 2.43% of its residents had been infected.

Researchers in India, which has one of the world's most poorly funded healthcare systems, tested over 29,000 blood samples collected from 21 states or territories between August and September. The results showed that nearly 15% of the population in India are believed to have antibodies in their blood and indicated that virus exposure of those surveyed was more prevalent among people tested in urban slums (15.6%) and non-slum urban areas (8.2%) than in rural areas (4.4%).

When we combine all the available data, it becomes clear the initial Chinese response to the epidemic has been relatively successful. The complete lockdown of Wuhan city and subsequently the entire Hubei province greatly contributed in keeping the Wuhan epicenter contained. Whereas, the following shutdown of the rest of the country during the Chinese New Year holiday period ensured a complete stoppage to movement of people which greatly lowered the chance of the virus spreading around the country by those who escaped from Wuhan before its lockdown.

The low prevalence of antibodies outside of Wuhan has proven the so-called hardliners actions taken by the Chinese Government that western governments and their lackeys around the world slammed as human right abuses were the correct decisions. China gave the world a solution but the west was too arrogant to follow, if the rest of the world took tougher border control and monitoring even from within the country, lockdown clustered areas, wore masks and observed social distancing before the virus became wildly spread the pandemic might have been under control by now.

What's more, these countries that slammed the initial Chinese response the hardest, were too busy playing anti-China propaganda and childish name-calling games including the US and the UK are amongst the most hard-hit countries at the moment. This proves the results of their government's lack of actions and very distinct behavior among this group of countries is that they constantly blame China, as the virus continues to rage across their country, in an attempt to divert the attention of its citizens instead of actually dealing with the virus.

When we look at the current state and data from these countries, can we even imagine what might have happened in China if Wuhan and Hubei were not put under strict lockdown and the Chinese Government didn't showdown the country? We must consider the fact a 4% infection rate in China is over 560 million people and a death rate of just 1 percent will mean over five million deaths. The people of Wuhan city and to a lesser extent Hubei province, including all the doctors and nurses from around the country who rushed into the epicenter are the true heroes of the nation.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.