Opinion | What can we learn from mainland China in UCTP?

By Dr. Karl So, Doctorate of Business Administration

The Universal Community Testing Programme (UCTP) commenced on September 1, 2020. HKSAR has announced the 7 days booking is almost full as of August 31, 2020, with over 650,000 citizens registered. Authorities are extending for another seven days based on the progress. A Medical Team from mainland China had also arrived in Hong Kong to build a temporally testing (Huo Yan) laboratory in Tai Po to increase the testing capacity. By doing so, we can found the hidden COVID-19 carriers and stop the spreading and infection. There are many things we can learn from mainland China's medical experts and fine-tune them to fit our society's needs such as methodology, information technology, and policymaking.

When planning the UCTP, speed and accuracy are the main focus or the main challenge. The right methodology determined how quickly we can complete the test with such a large number of samples. Assuming we put a test for 7.5m samples as the total population of Hong Kong while 0.001% are hidden carriers, 100,000 tests can be done per day, then simple math that we need 75 days (7,500,000 / 100,000) to find all 75 (7,500,000 x 0.001%) infected persons. 75 days with unknown infected persons spreading Covid-19 in the society will simply render the test unless with even more negative effects.

To speed up the test cycle, like 10m samples in WuHan, the medical team was using a better methodology by testing in groups. If we are using this method with 7.5m samples in Hong Kong and the same assumption as above, but testing in a group of 10 samples. Then, each subject takes two sets of samples, one goes to the group of 10, the other one stores in records. First, we test the group of 10, which will only take 7.5 days (7,500,000 / 10 / 100,000). When a group of 10 is tested positive to COVID-19, then test the stored sample one by one accordingly to find out the individual positive carriers. With the same infection rate, it will surely speed up the process, and also based on an assumption we are can take a 7.5m sample within a short time.

A better methodology can provide big data to apply to the information technology, which is important to avoid a rebound. China's authority already established Health QR codes for everyone in the city and everyone who enters the city, such as Hangzhou and Zhejiang Province. This health surveillance system can also be applied in Hong Kong, for example, people need a green code to go to restaurants, sports centers, and any general public facilities. Individuals can actively provide their health condition to the system, such as daily body temperature or blood pressure, etc. This big data providing a track record for analyzing trends and changes of status, which going to lead the Administration to decide on any policy.

Making the policy at the right time and right direction is never been easy, especially putting a different level of restrictions on society. Entering September, health clubs already closed for 3 months in total, dinning restrictions in different ways, bars have not allowed serving alcohol. All these policies are making our lives difficult but they are matter to our lives. But more importantly, it is the cost of making these policies which the society is paying. With the help of better methodology and big data, it provides another guidance and scope of setting up policies and especially the lift of policies. Like Hangzhou, the government using big data to control supplies including food and medical arrangement, established tracking systems for the local response team to handle confirmed cases, also using this to keep citizens informed with the right information.

Everyone in Hong Kong is hoping lives can be back to normal, but first, we need to get the spreading under control, then we need to manage the other potential outbreak, and make the right decision at the right time. We can all see the success made by mainland China's Medical Team with a bigger territory and population, their experience is surely beneficial and worth learning from. But as a responsible citizen, starting with UCTP is being the first step to help society back to normal, everyone should make their move.

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