Opinion | The new security dilemma, US hegemonic ambitions, Russia and Iran

By Tom Fowdy

Over the past few days, Israel has conducted a series of attacks against defense facilities in Iran. Reports show it has been done at the consent of the United States, amidst surging tensions in the Israeli-Palestine conflict and the return of hardliner Benjamin Netanyahu to office. In a statement, US Secretary Anthony Blinken appeared to reiterate his support for the attacks by saying the United States will use "every means" to prevent "Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon". Yet, some observers also argued that the attacks against the country were motivated by its support for Russia's war in Ukraine, with Tehran having supplied Moscow with drones and ballistic missiles.

Although it is not unconventional at all for Israel to utilize covert action against neighboring countries, let alone Iran, which has involved dozens of pre-emptive strikes, assassinations, sabotage, and other means throughout the decades, including Iraq and Syria, the decision to escalate confrontation with Tehran shows how the Ukraine conflict is having a growing global spillover, and risks provoking sub-conflicts in other regions. With attempts to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or the "Iran deal" now dead in all but name, and Tehran having faced an uprising itself over the women's rights situation in the country, things may become very dangerous in the Middle East, and the US intends it to be that way.

Joe Biden is the most hawkish, belligerent and NeoConservative US President since George W. Bush. Few people imagined that in the run-up to his tenure, but here we are. Under two years of his administration, Biden has aggressively exacerbated geopolitical confrontation in every arena imaginable in a bid to try and resurrect a perceived decline in American power, going further and far more dangerously than anything Trump has done, who was widely considered to be unhinged. The US not only laid the groundwork for, but escalated the conflict in Ukraine into a zero-sum struggle in the bid to try and cripple Russia, thwarting attempts at settlement, but in addition have dramatically escalated tensions with China over Taiwan too, as well as North Korea and Iran

The strategic logic of the US in taking this path is that the creation of insecurity, instability and conflict legitimates American power by allowing them to bring countries into their orbit in the name of protection. The Ukraine conflict has dramatically increased US clout over Europe both economically and militarily, breaking up existing regional integration. The administration has sought to apply that model to Asia in the name of Taiwan too, creating a crisis and then framing China as the aggressor. While Iran is a not priority issue, the US is obsessed with sustaining absolute hegemony over every corner of the globe and as such shown no serious intent to compromise with Tehran, fearing it will delegitimate the US presence in the Middle East.

However, the unintended consequence of US pressure against Iran, which restarted in 2018 following Trump's decision to scrap the JCPOA on the advice of John Bolton, has been to further align itself with both China and Russia to seek new economic outlooks, subsequently resulting in its support to Moscow in the Ukraine war. As the current administration does not accept any compromise on its foreign policy objectives, its response to this development has been to coerce Iran further through the projection of Israeli military force against it, made easier through the return of anti-Iran hardliner Benjamin Netanyahu. This means the impact of US-led policies in response to one region is actively ratcheting up tensions in another, and is creating a vicious cycle.

Will Iran actually respond to Israel's attacks? It's not actually clear at this stage what Tehran will do, if it will respond directly. However, undoubtedly such attacks and tensions may lead it to double down on its nuclear program because faced with tough US sanctions, internal unrest and repeated attacks by Israel, Tehran has otherwise no direct negotiating leverage left other than to enhance its own capabilities and keep pushing forwards. But the result of this is to set the stage for another confrontation, which is what the US feeds upon, and in 2023 this is now the world we live in. The US wants conflict, insecurity, ideological division and confrontation to sustain its hegemonic position, and the risks are manifold.

The author is a well-seasoned writer and analyst with a large portfolio related to China topics, especially in the field of politics, international relations and more. He graduated with an Msc. in Chinese Studies from Oxford University in 2018.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of DotDotNews.

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